November 14, 2002	Thursday	Ramazan 8, 1423

LONDON: A war on Iraq could cause up to half a million deaths and have devastating consequences for years to come, according to a major new report released in London on Tuesday.

The study by Medact, the British affiliate of the International Physicians for the Prevention of Nuclear War, who won the Nobel Peace Prize in 1985, examines the likely impact of a war on Iraq from a public health perspective.

Estimates of the total possible deaths on all sides during the conflict and the following three months range from 48,000 to more than 260,000. Civil war in Iraq could add another 20,000 deaths, the report says. Additional deaths from post-war adverse health effects could reach 200,000.

The report warns that if nuclear weapons are used, up to four million people could die in a war on Iraq.

The report marks the first public assessment of the consequences of a war on Iraq, Jane Salvage, international health consultant and author of the report said at its launch in London. The findings in the report are “essential for debate and decision-making,” she said. “How can we debate the pros and cons of an attack on Iraq if we don’t know what the consequences will be.”

The report was written after extensive consultation with doctors, nurses, Iraqi health specialists and specialists in the effects of war on health from the United States and Britain, Salvage said. Former chief of the Australian military General Peter Gration had noted the report was militarily sound, Salvage said.

The likely course of an attack on Iraq is outlined in the report as a heavy aerial attack aimed at destroying military installations and infrastructure. The report envisages destruction of roads, telecommunications centres and electrical supplies.

This would be followed by an invasion from the south to target the oilfields “but there may be an attempt by Saddam to sabotage them,” she said. There would be another attempt to invade from the north and then target Baghdad and other cities.

The destruction of electrical supply can have a direct and devastating consequence on health, said Mike Rowson, director of Medact. “If electricity is out, health is out, a fact that many still do not recognise,” he said. Lack of electricity has been a crucial factor in child mortality and in the health profile of a country, he said.

The Medact report says there are several effective alternatives to war. These could include smart sanctions aimed at the elite, giving enough time to UN (United Nations) inspectors and to make sure they work objectively, create a visible system to contain flow of weapons-related goods into Iraq, develop political processes to disengage the components of the Iraqi regime from one another and create a reconstruction plan to encourage a post-Saddam rule of law.

The report says that the aftermath of a conventional war could include famine and epidemics, millions of refugees and displaced people, and economic collapse in Iraq. Destablization and possible regime change in neighbouring countries, and more terrorist attacks are possible, the report says.—Dawn/The InterPress News Service.