PESHAWAR, Oct 9: More than 10 million people are expected to cast votes to elect 35 MNAs and 99 MPAs from the NWFP and the adjoining tribal areas.
Fata’s strength in the National Assembly has been raised to 12 from the eight seats previously.
For the 35 NA seats, the MMA has fielded 33 candidates, the largest number of aspirants, followed by the PPP and PML(Q) with 20 candidates each, the ANP with 17 candidates while the PML(N) and Tehrik-I-Insaf have fielded 14 contestants each.
For the 99 seats in the NWFP Assembly, again the MMA has topped the lists of candidates fielded with 92, followed by the PML(Q) with 61, ANP with 55, PPP and PML (N) with 52 each, PPP (Sherpao) with 47 and Tehrik-i-Insaf with 39 candidates.
A survey revealed that the ANP might get more seats in the provincial assembly than its closest competitors— the MMA and PML(Q). The ANP is likely to win 22 seats with the MMA and PML(Q) trailing behind by a slight margin.
ANP’s performance this time round may not be anywhere close to its largest tally in the 1997 elections with 33 seats, considering the fact the strength of the NWFP Assembly has been raised from 80 to 99, excluding the 22 reserved seats for women and three for minority.
The religious conglomeration may surprise many by taking a major chunk of the seats both in the NA and PA elections. The main stream PPP and PPP (Sherpao) - a group led by former chief minister Aftab Ahmad Khan Sherpao — might just come close to each other by winning 14 to 16 seats each.
The PML(N) that had emerged as the second largest party in the 1997 polls with the ANP as the largest in the NWFP Assembly might put up a bad show and could get between six to eight seats.
Independents may yet again emerge as the deciding factor in electing a future chief minister by getting 10 seats.
The Swabi Qaumi Mahaz (SQM) that has challenged the ANP in its stronghold of Swabi District is likely to get one seat that of a former ANP MPA, Dr Mohammad Saleem.
On the National Assembly front, again, the MMA may give a big surprise by getting maximum number of seats. Prospects are that the religious parties alliance may win between 10 to 12 seats followed closely by the PML (Q) with 9 seats. The ANP and PPP may share six seats each with the PML(N) ending up with dismal two seats in the National Assembly. The PPP (Sherpao) is widely expected to get two seats each.
The MMA may also win in Fata as analysts believe that this anticipated swing has come about not so much because the disgruntled voters want to elect religious leaders, only to ensure that the main-stream political parties lose. Also, the MMA has been helped by its symbol ‘Book’ which it has been able to successfully portray as the ‘Holy Book’ urging voters to vote for the Holy Quran and seek redemption.
The geo-political situation in the region and in the country has also helped the MMA to swing voters in its favours, they add.
Analysts say a hung parliament is likely to emerge in the NWFP Assembly and, by any combination, it would require at least three to four groups or parties in the provincial assembly to form a stable government, making the job of any chief minister ruling over a coalition all the more difficult and complex.
