October 7, 2002	Monday	Rajab 29, 1423

ANKARA: Turkey has long been among the most trusted Muslim friends of the United States, but the crisis over Iraq has put the two NATO allies on opposite poles, with Ankara dreading that its worst nightmare — an independent Kurdish state — is in the making.

Neither Washington nor the Kurds in neighbouring northern Iraq have been able to convince Ankara that they do not have secret designs to set up a Kurdish state in the breakaway region if the Baghdad regime is ousted.

Turkey fears its own Kurds could follow in the footsteps of their Iraqi cousins, who have enjoyed virtual autonomy since the 1991 Gulf War when their region was placed under the protection of a US-enforced no-fly zone.

But Ankara is also under pressure to back US plans for a military operation to topple Saddam Hussein, despite its concern this could herald the break-up of its southeastern neighbour.

Turkey, which recently acknowledged it already has soldiers in northern Iraq, has threatened military action if the Iraqi Kurds move towards independence. It has even accused the US of encouraging such moves.

Turkey is at a “dead end,” columnist Derya Sazak wrote in the Milliyet daily on Sunday.

“The support Turkey will give the US for an operation against Iraq will mean a visa for the Kurdish state in the post-Saddam period. The Pandora’s box has been opened.”

Prime Minister Bulent Ecevit on Saturday denied that Washington had formally asked for permission to use Turkish bases for possible military action against Iraq, adding that Ankara would “think about it” if such a demand were made.

“We are saying that we are against any kind of military operations in our region,” he said.

Many observers, however, believe Turkey would reluctantly extend support to the US if it intervened.

Washington has been instrumental in the allocation of billions of IMF loans for crisis-hit Turkey, backs Ankara’s bid to join the EU and promotes major pipelines to carry oil and gas to western markets from Central Asia via Turkey.

Ankara said on Friday that military moves against Iraq should have international legitimacy, a statement widely interpreted to mean Ankara would allow the US to launch strikes from Turkish soil if they are approved by UN resolutions.

“Turkey will lose a lot if it does not take active part in the scenario to topple Saddam Hussein. It seems inevitable for us to take the side of the US,” retired general Cevik Bir said recently.

Local analysts see support for the US as a means of guaranteeing a say in the shaping of a post-war Iraq.

Nationalists and retired generals have already urged the government to take measures to prevent the Iraqi Kurds from seizing the oil-rich Mosul and Kirkuk regions, which are currently under Baghdad’s authority.

Kurdish control of the resources there could make an independent Kurdish state in the mountainous and landlocked area a viable option.

Foreign Minister Sukru Sina Gurel said recently that “the natural resources of Iraq could not be allocated to the use of this or that group.”

And nationalist Parliament Speaker Omer Izgi issued a grim warning: “Just as we took Cyprus when the time came, we will take what is our right in Mosul and Kirkuk when the time comes.”

To strengthen its hand, Ankara is pushing for more say in the region for its kin there, the Turkmen minority.

Fears of losing territory to a Kurdish state have haunted the Turks ever since World War-I when the Ottoman Empire collapsed and the victorious Allied powers made an unsuccessful attempt to establish an independent Kurdistan in what is now southeastern Turkey.

A 15-year Kurdish rebellion, which has claimed about 36,500 lives has just recently abated in the region.—AFP