WASHINGTON: As George Bush was displaying his grasp of diplomatic vocabulary in front of the United Nations 7,000 miles away in the Gulf his fellow Americans were speaking a different language.
Their words were military terms: frigates, bombers, air defence fighters, refuelling tankers, carrier battle groups, reconnaissance planes, special forces. All these things are on their way to the region or already in position in readiness for a possible attack on Iraq.
In the most blunt indication yet that the US administration’s threat is not an idle one that it will force Iraq if necessary to meet its UN pledges, the US central command will move its headquarters to Qatar in November, perhaps indefinitely. The relocation is the culmination of a series of low-key moves on the Gulf chessboard designed to put all the pieces in place for a rapid US assault should the UN route now being pursued by Washington fail.
The establishment of command posts and the propositioning of heavy equipment in the region over the past year have put central command (Centcom) in a position to launch a strike on Baghdad within a fortnight of the order being given, if it is decided to mount the operation with a fast and light force of 50,000. There are about 30,000 American troops in the region already.
“It would take 10 days to bring in the additional equipment, 10 days to airlift the troops and 10 days to get to Baghdad,” said John Pike, the head of GlobalSecurity.org, a thinktank which closely monitors military movements.
Nor would it take long to complete the military build-up if it were decided to play it safe and gather an overwhelming force of 200,000 or more before striking. Under Centcom’s blueprint for a full-scale invasion, nattily titled Operation Plan 1003, the force could be assembled in just two months. That would be much faster than the six months’ build-up in the last Gulf war, partly because it would involve fewer troops, partly because the sluggish US military machine has become gradually more nimble.
The deployment of Centcom’s headquarters from Florida to Qatar is officially part of a biennial exercise called Internal Look and is supposed to last a week. However, it is highly unusual for General Tommy Franks, the man who would command an Iraqi invasion, and 600 of his top staff, to take part in such a distant relocation. The Pentagon has also made it clear that the move could be permanent.
Over the past few months, the $1.7 billion al-Udeid base in Qatar has been expanded and enhanced to serve as an alternative to Saudi Arabia, which acted host to US headquarters in the first Gulf war, but which has refused to get involved this time. Some Pentagon officials still believe that the Saudis will relent at the last moment and say the Prince Sultan air base near Riyadh, where a hi-tech command and control centre was completed only last summer, is still their first choice.
The US air force has been hard at work since the spring, moving computer equipment and munitions to al-Udeid, home to the longest runway in the region (15,000ft - 4,500 metres). There are already 400 US warplanes in the region.
Gen Franks’s force commanders are also already in the Gulf, having quietly established and expanded command posts there over the past few months.
The US third army, Centcom’s ground component, set up its headquarters in Kuwait in November, and work has been under way since then to transform it into a hub for ground operations. A specialized marine unit with equipment to detect chemical biological or radiological attacks, is also on the way to Kuwait.
The marine headquarters was ordered to Bahrain in January this year, to set up camp alongside the US Navy’s fifth fleet, which has been based there for years.
US special forces are also believed to have been considerably reinforced in the Gulf. The Navy seals have set up a headquarters in Bahrain. Other units are in Kuwait, Qatar and Oman, where the SAS is also training.
Large amounts of equipment have also been warehoused in the Gulf, so that it is instantly available when the order to invade is given.
Less visible, but no less definite, is the British move towards military preparedness. The British Royal Navy’s flagship, the Ark Royal, is on long-planned exercises in the Mediterranean. It could provide a floating command and control centre for British forces and base for Royal Marine commandos and special forces.
There are two specific ways in which the British air force could help the US — refuelling US navy aircraft and providing intelligence from high-flying Canberra planes equipped with aerial reconnaissance cameras.
The third — passive — contribution would be the British island of Diego Garcia in the Indian Ocean. It was used by B-52 bombers in the 1991 Gulf war and in the recent Afghanistan campaign. Equipment loaded on to ships ready to sail from Diego Garcia could be in the Gulf within a week.
On the ground, Britain’s contribution would consist of two distinct elements — paratroopers from the 16 assault brigade, SAS troops, and possible marine commandos dropped into Iraq by helicopter, and — in the event of a full-scale land invasion — two heavily armoured brigades equipped with Challenger 2 battle tanks.
These are based in Germany and are unlikely to be ready for action in the Gulf before the end of the year, British defence sources say. On top of this litany of military preparations, the bombing, of course, is itself already under way. Senior British defence sources told the Guardian newspaper that US and UK aircraft are stepping up “no fly” patrols over southern Iraq to search and destroy the country’s air defence system, as a prelude to a possible invasion.
British defence sources said that US and UK planes were patrolling in an “unpredictable” way. However, it is clear from air strikes over the past week that they are attacking targets over a wide area.
The targets have included a large Iraqi military base 250 miles southwest of Baghdad and an anti-ship missile base near the southern port of Basra. One of the reasons why the patrols have increased is that US radar-jamming “Prowler” aircraft have returned to the Gulf after action in Afghanistan.
British Tornado fighters and bombers based in Kuwait and Saudi Arabia rely on American planes to jam Iraqi radar.
British defence sources have now given up the pretence that the southern “no fly” zone is a humanitarian exercise designed to protect Iraqi Shias and Marsh Arabs. They too are increasingly bluntly speaking the language of war.—Dawn/The Guardian News Service.
