KARACHI, Sept 7: The election activity in the country is gaining momentum and it is expected that it will pick up further after Sept 15 when the component parties of the ARD, especially the PML (N) and the PPP, will formally kick off their campaigns.
The Muttahida Qaumi Movement launched its poll campaign on Sept 6 by holding a workers’ convention at Karachi and announced the list of the party candidates it has fielded for NA and PA seats in the country.
The train march campaign of the conglomerate of politico-religious parties — the Muttahida Majlis-i-Amal (MMA) — from Lahore to Karachi was not allowed as the government detained the march leaders.
As things stand now, a complete realignment of political forces has taken place in the country: pro-army regime and anti-regime forces. The new configuration of the PML (N) and the PPP under the banner of the ARD seems to play a dominant role in leading an anti-regime movement and for the restoration of democracy.
The MMA received its first pre-election setback on Saturday when the government detained its key leaders to prevent them from undertaking the proposed train march.
The “new understanding” between the PML (N) and the PPP has raised many questions in the minds of political observers who say it is yet to be seen what sort of pressure this new political configuration will apply on the army to send it back into its wings. Furthermore, will it be able to organize the PNA- type or the MRD-type mass movement against the military rule, or will it rescue its leadership from the clutches of accountability.
It is true that the military regime has failed to deliver and has disillusioned many. But equally the people had not been happy with the performance of politicians when they ruled the country.
It is for this reason, observers argue, by and large the people are lukewarm towards the elections, a fact which had been expressed in the 1997 elections which was marked by a low turnout of voters.
They admit that the coming together of the PPP and the PML on a single platform is a political event unparalleled in Pakistan’s history. However, it remains to be seen whether it will mark a watershed in civil-military relations in the country, observers pose the question.
Both the PPP and the PML (N) enjoy a good deal of popularity in Punjab. It has, however, not a history of leading an anti-army movement.
Moreover, observers argue, the present situation cannot be compared with the situations that prevailed during the 1977 PNA movement or the 1983 MRD movement. The PNA movement had been launched when there was a civilian government which had strained relations with all the opposition parties, forcing the army to intervene.
The MRD could not dislodge the military regime of Gen Ziaul Haque, because of the US backing it had as the latter needed Pakistan’s support in the Afghan war. Analysts say the ARD is likely to prove a powerful element in electoral politics and it could set in motion new trends in the nation’s politics, but it is not likely to dislodge the military government which enjoys full backing of the US which will not allow a friendly government in Pakistan to be toppled considering the current geo-political situation.
Equally important is the role of smaller parties, particularly those with nationalistic and ethnic appeal which have a “soft corner” for the regime. They are not interested in joining a movement which could bring either the PPP or the PML (N) into power.
In Sindh, the nationalist parties had already announced their dissociation from electoral politics. In Balochistan, some of the nationalist groups have already joined the pro-regime National Alliance. They will not toe the line of the ARD leadership.
According to political observers, the military regime has felt relaxed after the elimination of the key leadership of the two major parties from the election arena.
They argue that the military regime believe that the people could not be moved by the rhetoric of the political leadership because of their past deeds. They say that few would be prepared to rally behind the present ARD leadership because “there is simply no charismatic leader out in the field to mobilize the people.”
Some of the observers, however, do not rule out the possibility of dramatic changes in the domestic politics of the country. They say that the military regime enjoys the confidence of all major forces in the country, including the religious forces. The regime is unlikely to stay in power if all these forces unite against it. With so many variables at play, it is difficult to predict the future course of events, observers say.
KARACHI, Sept 7: The election activity in the country is gaining momentum and it is expected that it will pick up further after Sept 15 when the component parties of the ARD, especially the PML (N) and the PPP, will formally kick off their campaigns.
