September 5, 2002	Thursday	Jamadi-us-Saani26,1423

TOKYO: Japan, a long-time American ally, is trying to make its cautious way across the political minefield that is its hesitance in backing a US invasion on Iraq, Washington’s next target in its expanding ‘war on terrorism’.

In a supposed show of solidarity, Japanese Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi is scheduled to visit Washington next week to spend time with President George W Bush, during memorial services the US government is holding for the anniversary of the Sept 11 attacks.

But the signs are that this is about the most Japan is willing to do at this time.

“Japan is walking a terribly tight tightrope when it comes to taking a decision on lending its support to the US strike against Iraq,” explains Professor Takeshi Inoguchi, an international relations expert at the University of Tokyo.

While Japan was criticized for what some called its less than full support for the US-led coalition in the 1991 Gulf War — despite its giving $11 billion to the war effort — this time the Japanese do not seem to be too worried about getting negative feedback.

Koizumi has not pronounced Tokyo’s position thus far. But opinion polls and statements from politicians show that the Japanese are not entirely sold on a planned US attack on Iraq to unseat President Saddam Hussein.

Many politicians share the apprehension about unilateral US action by governments like Germany and France — and on Tuesday, South African statesman Nelson Mandela said that such an attack on an independent nation, without UN involvement, would be “appalling”.

On Wednesday, the ‘Asahi Shimbun’ newspaper reported that 77 per cent of Japanese it polled in a telephone survey opposed a US military attack against Iraq, and 14 per cent said they favoured it.

This marks a shift in attitudes toward the United States and its ‘war on terrorism’ in the last year, and reflects views different from Japanese support of the military action against Afghanistan last year and in the 1991 Gulf War.

“Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi has not taken a clear stand on what Japan would do should the United States take on Iraq, but the poll seems to indicate the Japanese public has already made up its mind,” the newspaper said on Wednesday.

Asked if Japan should cooperate with the United States should it begin an assault on Baghdad, 69 per cent of those polled in the ‘Asahi’ survey said Tokyo should not do so, while 20 per cent said it should.

Inoguchi says that Japan’s hesitance to give all-out support for US plans for Iraq reflect a change in Japanese perceptions of the country’s place in international relations and its ties with countries like the United States, for instance.

On Iraq, he says, Japan is caught between two factors: the attraction of supporting the United States as a counterweight to rival China’s rising power, and the pulse of an increasingly sceptical public that does not want Japan to slavishly follow Washington as it has usually done for the last five decades.

One of the clearest signs of Japan’s reluctance is a statement by the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), soon after a visit by US Deputy Secretary of State Richard Armitage in late August to urge Tokyo to support the Bush administration in the event it decides to attack Iraq.

But in the statement, LDP spokesman Takuji Yamazaki asks for ‘proof from the international community the existence of the Hussein administration is evil and goes into the negative effects of supporting unilateral military action against Iraq, apart from its potential for stoking anti-US feelings.

Yamazaki concludes by saying that Japan has no choice but to side with other governments that have expressed its misgivings against a US attack on Iraq.

He also says that Japan’s support for Washington can only be within the range of its anti-terrorist law, passed after Sept 11 by the Koizumi administration.

Any escalation of military support to this level would need a new law, some politicians say, but one that will be difficult to achieve in a country that has a strong pacifist base after World War II.

In short, how Japan pronounces itself on US action against Iraq will be a crucial test of ties between the countries that call themselves each other’s closest ally in the Asia-Pacific.

Apart from questions about the strength of the US case against Iraq and about evidence linking Iraq to the Sept 11 attacks, Professor Masayuki Yamauchi of the University of Tokyo adds that there is no proof that an invasion can establish democracy in the Middle East as easily as the ‘neo-imperialists’ seem to think.

Instead of military action, Yamauchi, an advisor to the government, calls for “soft power” that the professor believes can bring about change in Middle Eastern countries where there are little democratic institutions and processes in place.—Dawn / The InterPress News Service.