July 30, 2002	Tuesday	Jamadi-ul-Awwal 19,1423

WASHINGTON: For the past seven years, US and Israeli spy satellites have swept regularly over Iran’s Persian Gulf coast, snapping pictures of Russian and Iranian construction crews building a nuclear power plant at Bushehr.

This year, the satellites beamed back images of a round reactor dome, cooling pipes, pumping equipment and what some intelligence analysts believe to be anti-aircraft missile battery sites.

Bushehr has become the subject of debate in Washington and Tel Aviv over whether the plant should be allowed to come on line as scheduled in the next two or three years. Part of the discussions involve pressuring Russia to voluntarily cease construction. But as the plant moves closer to completion, it also has emerged as a potential test case of the Bush administration’s new doctrine of pre-empting threats to US national security.

In the process, it has highlighted the complexities in executing a policy of pre-emption: What impact would a pre- emptive strike have on US relations with Moscow? What effect would eliminating a civilian nuclear power plant have on Iran’s covert nuclear weapons development programme, which US intelligence says is ongoing at dozens of less-prominent sites throughout the country?

And perhaps most significant, what would be the consequences of what Iran almost certainly would believe to be an act of war?

Bush has labelled Iran a part of the “axis of evil,” and some US defence officials argue Bushehr should be destroyed before it receives its first load of nuclear fuel from Russia.

Iran is a signatory of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, and International Atomic Energy Agency inspectors have visited the Bushehr construction site.

Although a pre-emptive strike appears to be supported by only a minority in the administration and has not been discussed at the top levels of government, Israel has suggested it will not allow the plant to open.

“Does Israel have a military option?” said a government official in Washington who is familiar with the Israeli position. “The answer is yes.”

On June 7, 1981, Israeli F-15s and F-16s destroyed the French- built Osirak light-water nuclear reactor near Baghdad. The attack was criticized by the United States at the time but is now regarded by many US policy-makers as a milestone in efforts to prevent Iraqi President Saddam Hussein from obtaining nuclear weapons.

In recent weeks, Israel has publicly warned Iran that it considers the Bushehr plant — which Germany began building for Iran in 1974 and Iraq bombed three times in the mid-1980s during the Iran-Iraq war — a threat to its national security. There is some evidence, though not conclusive, that Iran is positioning anti-aircraft missile batteries around the plant and a nuclear research facility near Tehran, according to analysts who have looked at high-resolution satellite images of the sites.

Last month, the Hebrew daily Haaretz reported that Israel’s National Security Council was conducting an urgent review of its policy toward Iran and quoted one official as saying “that everything must be done, including, if necessary, using force to prevent Tehran from achieving nuclear weapons capabilities.”

The Bushehr plant, on Iran’s southwestern coast, is set to be completed in 16 months and operational 18 months later. Iran, which is paying Russia $800 million for its assistance, says the 1,000-megawatt light-water reactor is for peaceful energy production only.

Neither the technology nor the spent fuel from the Bushehr plant could, by itself, be used to make a nuclear bomb. But the same technology used in the plant is necessary to manufacture enriched fuel for nuclear weapons. Also, weapons-grade plutonium could be extracted from the spent fuel for a nuclear bomb.

The CIA estimates Iran is seven years from having a nuclear bomb. Israeli intelligence estimates five years. Within the next few years, experts agree, Iran will have acquired enough know-how and technology to produce a long-range nuclear missile capability without further foreign assistance.

The issue has recently emerged as a top priority in US- Russian relations, as the Bush administration has increased pressure on Moscow to voluntarily cease construction. The Russians have given no sign they will comply.—Dawn/The Washington Post News Service.