July 12, 2002	Friday	Jamadi-ul-Awwal 1, 1423

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ISLAMABAD, July 11: The impact of El-Nino, a low rainfall phenomenon, had been very positive in last four such spells on Pakistan’s crops production including sugar cane which is one of the most water consuming crops.

“During El-Nino years, there has been a positive effect on rainfall as well as sugar cane the most water demanding crop production in Pakistan. Similar effect on other corps is foreseen”, said a study conducted by K. Ali Qazilbash, an engineer by profession and secretary-general of Pakistan Sugar Mills Association (PSMA).

The study analysed historically the El-Nino situation viz-a- viz overall rainfall and annual sugar cane production. Arrival of weak to moderate El-Nino has been forecast that could trigger drier weather in the South-Asian region between now and September this year.

In the recent past, four such spells of low to high intensity were registered during 1972-73, 1982-83, 1992-93 and 1997-98.

In Pakistan, the year 1982-83 witnessed total rainfall of around 350 to 370 millimetre (mm) against 300mm in 1980-81. And from the year 1984-85 to 1991-92, annual rainfall could never touch even the 300mm figure.

Again in 1992-93 and 1997-98 El-Nino years, Pakistan received an annual rainfall of around 360mm each year. Since 1980-81, only once in 1994-95, the rainfall crossed 350mm figure except the El- Nino years.

The sugar production in Pakistan has always been on a steady growth since 1980-81 without any exception to El-Nino or normal years. The production in 1997-98 touched a record 3.5 million tons which was again an El-Nino year.

The report, however, indicated that during last visit of El- Nino in 1997-98 severe dry weather and storms affected the crops in South Asian countries, particularly sugar cane in India and Thailand faced the brunt of it.

Its volatility has proven that no two-El-Nino events were alike and that each one can be extremely unpredictable as to its timing, severity and duration. If the El-Nino event is long lasting or severe the side effects and negative impact for next crop is likely.

Following the recent reports, the prospects of a tighter 2002-03 season have already been expressed with rising concern in Thailand. Production analysts in Europe, USA and Australia have also expressed return of this weather phenomenon in the current season.

The United Nations Food and Agriculture Organisation (UNFAO) has already advised the South Asian nations to hoard essential food commodities and the warning is being followed by these countries by stepping up stock purchases.