May 25, 2002	Saturday	Rabi-ul-Awwal 12,1423

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PARIS, May 24: At least three million people would be killed and another 1.4 million seriously injured if even a “limited” nuclear war broke out between Pakistan and India, the British publication New Scientist said on Friday.

The estimates, it said on its website, come from a new study made by US and Asian researchers at Princeton University, New Jersey.

The figure is based on the impact of 10 Hiroshima-force bombs detonated at a height of 600 metres over the five largest cities in Pakistan and the five biggest in India.

The targeted cities used in the scenario are Karachi, Lahore, Islamabad, Rawalpindi and Faisalabad in Pakistan, and New Delhi, Mumbai, Kolkata, Bangalore and Chennai in India

Casualties on the Pakistan side would be 1.2 million dead and 600,000 injured, while the toll in India would be 1.7 million dead and 900,000 injured.

But this toll only comprises the immediate casualties from blast, fire and radiation. An unknown number of deaths would occur from cancer in future years.

In addition, if the bombs exploded on the ground instead of in the air, the resulting radioactive dust could kill people across hundreds of square kilometres, the researchers warn.

Because the prevailing winds are from the west, India is a likelier victim of fallout than Pakistan, they add.

The 10 bombs are only a 10th of the two countries’ estimated nuclear arsenal, according to the researchers, pointing to figures by the Institute for Science and International Security (ISIS) in Washington, which suggests that India has about 65 warheads and Pakistan around 40.—AFP