May 23, 2002	Thursday	Rabi-ul-Awwal 10,1423

MOSCOW: Can the United States get Russia on board for a war against Iraq if UN sanctions fail to drive Iraqi President Saddam Hussein from power?

That is one of the intriguing questions to be raised when President Bush meets with President Vladimir V. Putin in a four-day summit starting today (Thursday).

The United States and Russia are trying out a new, closer strategic relationship, and American officials are eager to see just how cooperative Moscow will be in dealing with countries such as Iraq and Iran.

A senior US diplomat, who recently briefed journalists about the summit, indicated that the Bush administration is willing to make any military action against Iraq, a traditional Russian ally, significantly more palatable to Putin by offering assurances that Russian economic interests will not be harmed.

In particular, he hinted that the United States would look favourably on a post-Hussein regime honouring Iraq’s 8 billion dollars in debts to Russia as well as keeping in place lucrative oil contracts and equipment sales that the Persian Gulf nation has awarded Russian companies.

“Those are things we are prepared to talk about, shall we say, in a positive spirit, if it helps us get to the common goal of denying Saddam Hussein the ability to develop weapons of mass destruction,” the diplomat said.

Although Russia has been Hussein’s main ally in the many UN Security Council debates on Iraq over the past decade, the deepening friendship between Moscow and Washington since the war on terrorism began last fall could herald a shift in Russia’s perception of its own interests, the diplomat suggested.

“I don’t think it is foreordained that we will have a parting of the ways if pressure fails and military options have to be considered,” he said. “I think the Russians, if Saddam blows his last chance, are prepared to say, ‘We tried, but there is nothing more we can do.’ “

The Russian-Iraqi business relationship is no small matter here. Some experts estimate its long-term value at 40 billion dollars, or about two-thirds of Russia’s entire national budget for this year. Just this week, there were appeals from the Russian oil industry for Putin to “protect” Iraq from the United States.

In Washington, National Security Adviser Condoleezza Rice said on Monday that Iraq would be on the agenda of the Bush-Putin meeting but indicated that the discussion would not necessarily be about military action.

“Since the president hasn’t made any decisions on what to do about the status quo in Iraq, just that the status quo is unacceptable, I think he will want to consult with Putin on exactly that point,” Rice said.

Bush is likely to lay out the US case for removing Hussein from power and argue that Russia would be better off with a economically healthy successor regime in Iraq that would not threaten other nations in the Persian Gulf region, another US official said.

But this official said that some of the urgency of winning Russian support has faded since it became clear that the United States is willing to wait because of renewed efforts at the United Nations to impose a return of weapons inspectors to Iraq.

John Tedstrom, who as a National Security Council aide prepared President Clinton for a meeting with Putin, said the summit was a natural occasion for Bush to try to win support on the issue of Iraq. While the Russians have criticized American talk of a “regime change,” Putin shares Bush’s concern about the threat of radical Islam, Tedstrom said.

Ivo Daalder, a former National Security Council aide now at the Brookings Institution near Washington, said he believes Russian opposition to ousting Hussein is already on the wane due to Putin’s inclination “not to oppose things he can’t stop anyway.”

But Russian Foreign Minister Igor S. Ivanov insisted before a committee in parliament on Tuesday that Russia still opposes US military strikes.—Dawn/The Los Angeles Times News Service.