THE pre-presidential referendum calm on the Karachi markets may not be a lull before the storm in the literal sense but it is unprecedented in more than one ways as far as the physical activity— both in commodities and financial instruments— is concerned.

Never before in the trading history of the local markets, buyers and sellers have been so skeptical as they are before the deadline of April 30. No one, either the big business or the small trader is willing to speak about his fears about the developing situation or about the developing political polarisation. Neither is anyone in a mood to follow the signals from the big business, which has gone all-out to support the referendum ‘for the sake of continuity in economic and financial policies.’

Giants among them have also offered to set up polling booths in their factory premises to facilitate the voting job but the prevailing scare in the commodity markets is hard to fathom.

The uncertainty, which seems to have crept into the business system owes its origin to constitutional positions taken by the government and the opposition. What appears to have aggravated the constitutional battle of wits is the clear divide line between the wizards who have divergent legal arguments on the same issue. Who is wrong and who is right, only the apex court can tell and settle the issue once for all and that perhaps is where traders, brokers, and businessmen fail to understand that how much clearly constitutional demands could be interpreted in more than one ways.

“Let the deadline pass into history in its own way irrespective of the apex court’s verdict, the inevitable has to happen,” this is the polite reply when some of the leading traders were asked to comment on the pre-referendum sluggishness in the markets.

In normal conditions, pre-election sessions on the major markets are notorious for massive either-way speculative trading amid conflicting rumours about the outcome of polls and the winning candidates or the parties but there is none. Rather each session preceding the deadline is taking steam out of the markets beyond the capacity of those associated with the daily trading.

“ It is a referendum of ‘wakhry’ type, Aslam Atiwala, a leading commodity dealer and broker says jokingly adding, “buyers and sellers have withdrawn to the sidelines in such a way that no one could explain their absence. The commodity markets apparently do not share the enthusiasm on the roads, which they should on the perception of continuation of the current business-friendly policies”, he says, pointing to a flood of pro-referendum banners displayed over electric poles by some business associations, individuals and small political parties. The interesting feature is that there is none against the referendum despite talk of boycott by major political parties.

The major hit are the leading commodity markets, notably cotton,grain, poultry feeds and several others where the trading activity is claimed to have fallen to a low ebb.

“ Spinner do not buy lint cotton telling ginners we will meet after the referendum, adding to the worries of ginners”, a leading cotton broker Naseem Usman says,” exporters do not buy rice and millers wheat for the same reasons and the consequent lull on the busy wholesale markets”.

Even trading in stocks is affected sharply as the daily volume has fallen below the average figure of 150m shares.

The KSE 100-share index has, during the last couple of weeks, made abortive bids to stay above the psychological level of 1900 point owing to massive doze of institutional buying but as the general investor is unsure about the safety of his investment and indulges in selling, it beats a hasty retreat.

The same is the case with the US dollar, which in normal trading sessions is considered investors’ haven.But its decline below Rs.60.00 benchmark rate has shaken the confidence in its viability at least for the near-term.There are more sellers in dollar than buyers.

In similar conditions as prevailing now, gold is the only commodity, which is braving the heavy odds. Its rise to above Rs.6,000 per 10 grams level during the week has demonstrated that investors have at last found a safe haven known for the centuries. But how long it remains attractive and ensures fair return for the investors will be known after the referendum.