March 15, 2002	Friday	Zilhaj 30, 1422

MOSCOW: Whenever Washington set its sights on Baghdad, Iraqi strongman Saddam Hussein knew he could count on Moscow for support.

Before American bombs began to drop in the 1991 Gulf War, for example, then-Soviet Foreign Minister Yevgeni Primakov met Hussein at his presidential palace. Then months later, with the heaviest air campaign in American history under way, Primakov made a risky run for Baghdad - his convoy smeared with mud, and headlights off - to help Hussein find a face-saving way out.

But now, despite Russia’s continuing support for Iraq - Russia routinely backs Iraq in the UN Security Council, and mediated in the 1997 and 1998 US-Iraq crises - the Kremlin’s view is changing.

As Vice President Dick Cheney embarked on a tough-sell Mideast tour, to build support for Washington’s expansion of its “war on terrorism” to include toppling Iraq’s Hussein, analysts say the Kremlin is adjusting its priorities and maximizing its opportunities to collect billions in debt and oil deals.

That result says as much about evolving US-Russia relations - and Putin’s not-always-popular, pro-West strategy - as it does about Moscow souring on Baghdad. “Russia’s first objective is not to allow this military action in Iraq - whatever it might be - to jeopardize the level of US-Russia relations that has been achieved,” says Oksana Antonenko, a Russia specialist at the International Institute of Strategic Studies in London.

“Russia is quite fed up with (Saddam) anyway,” Ms Antonenko says. “The judgment in the Kremlin is that if the US commits very strongly to action against Iraq, Russia would work within the broader coalition.”

Moscow’s key demands will be to ensure that up to 20 billion dollars in debt arrears, current oil deals, and other contracts are respected; that Russia’s interests are respected by any post- Hussein regime; and that any action is given at least a fig leaf of international legitimacy by the UN.

Russian Defence Minister Sergei Ivanov - arriving in Washington for a three-day visit on Monday - made clear that “Baghdad must accept weapons inspectors under the UN aegis, to stop the concern of the world community.”

“September 11 really did mark a Rubicon in Putin’s strategy,” says Strobe Talbott, former deputy secretary of state and head of the Yale Center for the Study of Globalization in New Haven, Conn.

Putin has “seized upon” the subsequent tolerance in Russia to build US-Russia ties “because of the common threat.” “(Russians) also see Saddam Hussein as dangerous,” Talbott says. “But they also have very real economic interests.” Even more important, Talbott adds, is that Russia “not be yet again left aside, while Uncle Sam struts his stuff.”

Before Sept 11, Russia was fingered as a key proliferator of weapons-of-mass-destruction expertise, it opposed NATO expansion, and fumed at Washington’s determination to pull out of cornerstone arms-control treaties. After Sept 11, the Kremlin barely whimpered when Bush announced the US was abandoning the 1972 Antiballistic Missile Treaty.

With 15 billion to 20 billion dollars at stake - some 8 billion dollars in Soviet-era military debt, and billions more in oil deals - Russia is now calculating that a new regime could ensure a payback.

That may be the Kremlin plan. “Putin believes that Russia’s destiny is with the West,” says Talbott. “That is where the money is. And he knows he needs that investment and support for Russia to make it as a modern economy.” —Dawn/The Christian Science Monitor News Service.