March 11, 2002	Monday	Zilhaj 26, 1422

LONDON: They’re pink, fleshy and pumped full of chemicals, but Russians devoured millions of them - until last Tuesday. Now dubbed ‘Bush legs’ by Muscovites, chicken drumsticks from the US were last week banned by the Russian government for failing domestic health and safety standards.

The timing, hours after President George Bush increased tariffs on steel imports into America, can only mean one thing: American chickens are the first casualty in what threatens to be one of the biggest trade wars the world has seen.

Two-way trade between the two engines of the world economy - the EU and US - generates 1.1 trillion dollars, according to the European Commission last October. In 2000, the EU had a 55 billion dollars trade surplus with the US, and the economic superpowers employed 3 million people in each other’s territory. But this war could derail growth, spark costly lawsuits and paralyse innocent business sectors.

What started as a blatant political decision by Bush to salvage steel worker votes in swing states before the mid-term elections could now spiral out of control.

International trade experts have circled April 29 as the day full-blown war could break out. That is the day the World Trade Organization will decide the level of sanctions the EU can impose on American businesses. The sanctions will top one billion dollars - and could be as high as 4 billion dollars if the EU gets its way.

If Europe were to proceed with sanctions, it would follow the tactics employed by America in the recent banana trade war. That would mean punishment would be meted out to small but politically sensitive industries. That’s why, in retaliation for Europe closing its markets to Latin and Central American bananas, the US refused to allow in Scottish cashmere and Austrian chandeliers.

Insiders say the EU will target the US agriculture and aerospace sectors. There have also been suggestions that the EU will go slow on allowing US-linked banana producers into its markets.

But while Europe seems to hold the moral high ground following last week’s steel decision, America will soon have the chance to strike back on what is probably the world’s most infamous and hated protection device: the Common Agricultural Policy. —Dawn/The Observer News Service.