March 4, 2002	Monday	Zilhaj 19, 1422

THE FAMOUS revolutionary Russian leader, V.I. Lenin once defined socialism as “the electrification of the whole country and the transfer of power to the people’s representatives.”

This shows the importance of electrification for overall development of a country more than 80 years ago. The need for electrification of entire Pakistan remains just as vital today. Since all industrial and other economic activities rely on electricity or other means of power, the primary energy production can be considered as an indicator of a country’s economic strength. The USA has about 6 per cent of the world’s population, but consumes more than 30 per cent of the world’s energy. India, on the other hand, has 15 per cent of world’s population and consumes only 1 per cent of world’s energy.

The energy production in Pakistan is not a match to either of these countries. Its energy consumption has nearly tripled in the last 20 years. Still, Pakistan accounts for only 0.5 per cent of total world energy consumption. Our successive governments have reiterated the importance of developing the power sector by saying that the government had prioritized the power sector but ground realities show otherwise.

Pakistan still remains an agrarian country. The amount of per capita cultivable land is dwindling very fast because of the fast population growth. In order to survive as a nation, and to prosper in the 21st century, Pakistan has been trying to shift from an agrarian economy to an industrial economy. Consequently, the power generation has been increasing drastically for achieving this goal. More than three fold portion of our total energy comes from oil, gas and coal. The use of fossil fuel is not only an ineffective means of energy generation, but also extremely detrimental to the environment. Therefore radical improvement of the power sector is an absolute prerequisite for the overall development of the country.

To meet the growing demands of electricity in the domestic and industrial sectors, Pakistan will have to come up with a plan for massive production of power. Assuming 7 per cent per annum growth in the GDP, the primary energy demand in Pakistan is projected to be about 35000 MW by 2010. This represents a more than two-fold increase in coming decade. Oil and gas will continue to be the main sources of commercial energy supply. Pakistan despite of having enormous potential of energy resources remains energy deficient and has to rely heavily on imports to meet its requirements. It appears that Pakistan would continue to remain a net importer of crude oil and refined oil products unless a major discovery of oil is made.

Pakistan needs to reduce its dependency on foreign oil gradually and will have to explore the feasibility of developing alternative sources of energy. The prospect of using natural gas to generate electricity is pretty bright for Pakistan. The Natural gas can be used to produce more electricity. It burns cleaner than oil and causes less damage to the environment.

Pakistan consumes all gas it produces. At present power generation consumes only 31 per cent of our total gas production. Major consumer of gas is industrial sector, which consumes 43 per cent of gas whereas household consumes only 18 per cent of national gas production. As our proved gas reserves tend to drift downward in recent years, we will have to import gas as well should our gas output not meet demand level due to rise in energy demand. The government has discussed options to pipe gas from Qatar, Iran and Turkmenistan but Pakistan’s weak financial position makes it difficult to secure financing for such ambitious projects in near future.

At present our annual spending on import of oil is around Rs265 billion. This heavy expenditure on oil, 35 per cent of which is consumed in electric power generation, is affecting adversely every sector of the national economy. It will be worthwhile to note that the present day cost of natural gas, furnace oil and high-speed diesel consumed by Wapda, the KESC and the IPPs is around Rs100 billion. In order to reduce heavy burden on economy and prevent fast depletion of the national natural fuel reserves it is imperative for Pakistan to take necessary steps for reducing progressively its dependence on fossil fuels by switching to alternate sources of energy.

Pakistan has about 17000 MW of installed electric generating capacity. Thermal plants make up about 70.5 per cent of this capacity, with hydroelectricity making up 28.5 per cent and nuclear plants 1 per cent. Pakistan’s total power generating capacity has increased rapidly in recent years, largely due to foreign investment, leading to a partial alleviation of the power shortages, Pakistan had faced earlier. With much of Pakistan’s rural areas yet to receive electric power, and less than half of the population connected to the national grid, significant demand growth is expected in the long term.

Growth in power generation in recent years has come primarily from new independent power producers (IPP’s), some of which have been funded by foreign investors. All these IPPs’ sell power to the national grid currently run by Wapda. The IPP’s have been involved in disputes and litigation with the government over the rates set in their Power Purchase Agreements (PPA’s). This has dampened the foreign investor’s interest in Pakistan’s energy sector.

Despite a three-fold increase in the installed electricity generation capacity over the last 15 years, less than half of the households are electrified while per capita electricity supply is only 443 kWh per year. The hydropower potential of the country is estimated to be about 30000 MW of which only 16 per cent has been exploited so far. Further development of hydropower is planned by building large dams but progress has been limited due to problems related to water distribution among provinces and population dislocation. A 1,425-MW Ghazi-Barotha plant, which takes advantage of the enormous untapped potential of the Indus River has been delayed considerably due to one reason or the other.

To meet the energy demand of the future, research and development of the nuclear energy is continuing throughout the world. Many countries heavily rely on nuclear energy. For example, France uses up to 75 per cent of nuclear energy to meet the national demand. Canada, Germany, the UK, Sweden, the USA, and Japan also use a significant amount of energy generated by nuclear reactors.

According to the Energy Information Administration, the USA produces about 15 per cent of its electricity supply from 132 nuclear reactors. India produces less than 2 per cent of its electricity from nine nuclear reactors. Although nuclear energy is very efficient, it is relatively costly. Also, there are some risks involved in safety procedures and disposal of waste materials generated in nuclear power plants.

A small (125 MW) plant was commissioned in 1971. Known as KANUPP (Karachi Nuclear Power Plant), this facility makes a minor contribution (less than 1 per cent) to the national electricity supply. A second plant (CHASNUPP) of 300 MW has been inaugurated recently at Chasma. Plans are reported for a second unit at Chasma, to be operational in 2006. Although the prospects of nuclear energy are pretty bright in Pakistan but technology barrier is a big hurdle in its course.

Renewable energy technologies have so far been used in the country only for demonstration purposes. The role of renewable energy resources such as solar, wind, tidal power and biomass has been negligible in the total energy picture of Pakistan. The experiments in the past in this area were not so successful due to variety of reasons including lack of understanding and handling of these technologies.

Wind turbines for power generation have not been experimented so far. However, about 30 windmills for pumping water have been installed for experimental purposes in different parts of Sindh and Balochistan. The experiment suffered due to lack of proper infrastructure for maintenance. Other hurdle is availability of the authenticated data of wind speeds at different altitudes along the coast and mountains. The only wind data available is with the meteorological directorate that too is recorded at a low height of around 12 feet, which is not enough to have a true picture for harnessing the wind energy.

Generation of electricity using tidal power is very similar to hydroelectric power. Tidal channels are dammed off and tidal water is forced to pass through a narrow gate to which a turbine is connected. The direction of the turbine can be changed to allow both incoming flood tide and outgoing ebb tide to work on the turbine. This source of power generation does have a good potential in our 835 Km long coastal belt.

Solar energy is plentiful in Pakistan. Generation of electricity using solar power is environmentally feasible. Development of solar power should be a top priority for Pakistan in the 21st century. Solar power uses sun’s energy to produce electricity. During last fifteen years Pakistan has shown quite encouraging developments in this field.The National Institute of Silicon Technology (NIST) under the ministry of science and technology has already developed the know-how and technology to fabricate the solar cells, modules, and systems. Because of lack of technical know-how and no follow-up, these systems have not given the required benefits.

Pakistan being in the Sun Belt is ideally located to take advantage of solar energy technologies. This energy source is widely distributed and abundantly available in the country. The provinces of Sindh and Balochistan are ideal for utilisation of solar energy. Balochistan province is particularly rich in solar energy. The annual mean sunshine duration in Balochistan is among the highest in the world. Around three fourth population of Balochistan is living in rural areas and 90 per cent of its villages, which are separated by large distances, are yet to be electrified. Therefore chances are extremely rare that these remote areas are connected to national grid in near future. Therefore solar energy is the only and the best solution for these areas.

Most of these alternative sources of energy discussed earlier are still more costly compared to the energy produced by conventional methods. However, with an increase in energy demands and with the invention of more efficient technologies in the future, the production costs and price will decline. We need to adopt a power generating technology that is economically feasible and environmentally sound. Pakistan is not at the leading edge of technological research. This situation gives us an opportunity to learn from other people’s mistakes. Pakistan needs to develop an action plan for energy production, transmission, and supply. With the current trend of globalisation of trade and technology transfer, it will be possible to adopt technologies that are both efficient and environmentally feasible for Pakistan in the 21st century.