LONDON: A spectre is haunting the chancelleries of social democratic Europe, to coin a phrase. But at this stage in world history it is not communism or any of its debilitated 21st century cousins that is threatening the status quo. It is a revivified right.

2002 is election year across the continent, in the Netherlands, Germany, France, Sweden and Portugal. Parties of the right are in pole position. To Madrid and Rome may be added right-leaning cabinets in Lisbon and Berlin. As for Paris, a victory for Jacques Chirac in the presidential poll in April could be followed by gains for the neo-Gaullists and allies in the elections for the French national assembly in June.

The days when Clinton, Blair, Jospin and Schroeder could go on third way jollies are over. The ‘progressive summit’ taking place in Sweden next month will be a mournful affair. Tony Blair is still riding high, but he and Costas Simitis of Greece are among the few leftish leaders who do not have to worry about impending elections, coalition bust-ups or signs of slide.

Let us not exaggerate. In Greece and Finland, the left are secure and social democracy, with or without liberal attachments, will probably hold the fort in Stockholm and the Hague.

And the European right is far from coherent. This brave new dawn is distinctly bleary-eyed. Even on the critical question of what to do about European union there is not much consistency. ‘Berlusconization’, as the Germans call it, is a threat but the Italian prime minister’s maverick politics is hardly cement for some new rightwing international.

Progressives need not yet lose much sleep. Take Edmund Stoiber, standard bearer for the Christian Democrats in Germany. The prime minister of Bavaria probably enjoys warmer relations with trade unions than Tony Blair; his recycling of the proceeds of privatisation into public investment in hi-tech companies would impress Tony Benn; there are few London commuters who would not switch to Munich’s S-Bahn, which the Bavarian state liberally subsidises.

In France the right is a boisterous compendium of Gaullists (who believe in the strong state) and economic liberals (who want to shrink it). Hard nationalism competes with genuine euro warmth. As for president Jacques Chirac, he believes simultaneously in a Europe of nation states and a powerful federal presidency. It is not likely that, if it gets its parliamentary act together, the right would repeal the 35-hour week implemented by Jospin’s coalition of socialists, communists and greens.

Ideological heterogeneity characterises the right in Spain, where Jose Maria Aznar happily marries corporatism and market liberalism - and refuses to privatize the health service. His neighbour, Antonio Guterres, socialist prime minister of Portugal, is being punished for perceived incompetence rather than sins of principle. As for Italy, the hopeless confusion of public and private interest associated with Silvio Berlusconi’s victory last year complicates things.

Berlusconi could implode. He won with the backing of both small business and nearly half the working class and their interests differ. The Italian press talks ominously about a coup, meaning either Berlusconi’s removal from office by judges or his dismissing them.

Immigration controls would tighten if, say, Paris, Berlin and Rome were ruled by the right. Yet the international civil and human rights regimes are strong; constraints imposed by membership of the EU too. Together, they will clamp the right’s freedom of action in office. —Dawn/The Guardian News Service.