January 25, 2002	Friday	Ziqa’ad 10, 1422

AL QUDS: After weeks of steadily escalating violence, the Middle East conflict is in danger of spiralling out of control unless the US steps in and forces both sides to rein in attacks, analysts say.

With the collapse of ceasefire efforts, political analysts said whatever slender peace hopes remained had been undermined by Washington’s decision to stick to the sidelines for now.

“Without direct US involvement this cycle of violence and counter-violence will only get worse,” said Ziad Abu-Amr, a Palestinian lawmaker and political scientist. “It would take a miracle to avoid an even more destructive phase.”

The latest bloodshed appears to have set the stage for more reprisals by both sides. Israel promised to retaliate “appropriately” while Hamas, the main group behind a recent wave of suicide attacks, vowed “all-out war”.

“We are once again watching a dance of death at the edge of the abyss in the Middle East,” Terje Roed-Larsen, the United Nations’ Middle East envoy, told reporters.

The US has expressed alarm over the rising violence but has set no date for the return of US envoy Anthony Zinni, whose two previous visits have failed to staunch the bloodletting.

Analysts said US commitment to Middle East peacemaking may have been weakened now that Arab support no longer seems vital to the US-led military campaign in Afghanistan after the September 11 attacks on the United States. Hemi Shalev, political commentator for the Israeli daily Maariv, described the atmosphere as “that of the eve of war”.

An Israeli security source denied Sharon was prepared to go to the extreme of reoccupying all Palestinian-controlled territories, at this point, saying: “The Americans are against it.” But he said the severity of Israel’s response would depend on whether militants continued mounting attacks.

Palestinians have accused Sharon of provoking the latest violence to sabotage peace efforts and voiced fear that he would interpret US criticism of Arafat as a green light to topple the 72-year-old leader.

Arafat has been thrust into a precarious position. If he takes tougher action against militants defying his month-old ceasefire order, he risks a Palestinian civil war. But if he fails to act decisively, he could alienate US and European leaders, whose patience is wearing thin over his inability to keep a lid on the violence.

In the meantime, analysts agreed Tuesday’s bloody attack in the heart of Israeli-occupied land would give Sharon a freer hand in striking back at Palestinian targets.

Sharon has already declared Arafat irrelevant, destroyed symbols of his power and confined him to the West Bank city of Ramallah with tanks ringing his headquarters.

But Israeli analysts predicted Sharon would not risk US wrath by harming, ousting or banishing him. “The US and Europeans see the alternative to Arafat as far worse and more radical, and many Israelis agree,” said Joseph Alpher, an Israeli political and security expert.

Security sources said Israeli retaliation was likely to take the form of fresh raids into Palestinian areas and stepped-up use of Israel’s internationally condemned policy of killing fighters on its most-wanted list.

But Abu-Amr said such measures, including Israel’s crippling military blockade on Palestinian cities, would backfire on Israel by further radicalising ordinary Palestinians.

Analysts said links between recent attacks and Arafat’s Fatah movement spelled danger for senior Fatah leaders.

Israelis were alarmed that the Al-Aqsa Martyrs Brigades, an armed group attached to Fatah, was now carrying out attacks inside the Jewish state. It claimed responsibility for the Al Quds shooting spree and a deadly attack on a Jewish girl’s coming-of-age party last week, saying it was avenging the killing of one of its leaders.

But a member of the Brigades said on Wednesday the group would halt attacks if Israel ended its siege and assassinations.

However, Sharon’s scope for retaliation remains limited not just by world opinion but by pressures from within his own fragile national-unity coalition.

Avraham Burg, the parliamentary speaker, accused Sharon of trying to return to the days of full occupation before Israel began ceding territory under the 1993 Oslo peace accords.

“The policy of the right, its plan, is destruction of the Palestinian Authority, renewed conquest of West Bank towns, a return to the dream of “Greater Israel,” he said.—Reuters