Powell’s hope

ONE hopes Colin Powell’s belief that the present impasse between Pakistan and India could be broken by diplomatic means is not misplaced. Talking to reporters after his meeting with L.K. Advani, the American secretary of state said war was no solution to the crisis in South Asia. Instead, he thought it was in the interest of “all of us to continue to do everything we can in our power to solve this through political and diplomatic channels and let it not go to conflict.” Meaningfully, Secretary Powell referred to the steps President Musharraf had taken to curb religious extremism in Pakistan and said he believed there was room for more such actions.

Secretary Powell’s optimism comes against a backdrop of more ominous developments. The Indian army is to begin large-scale manoeuvres along Pakistan’s borders from Punjab to Sindh. There are hints coming from New Delhi that it could snap diplomatic relations with Pakistan. The official PTI news agency has quoted unnamed external ministry officials as saying that India would not pull back troops from the borders, and that such a step could be taken only if Islamabad took “credible action” against “terrorists.” More significantly, the officials were reported as saying that if Pakistan’s action did not satisfy India, “the situation could get serious.”

These are all dangerous developments. Rightly did Pakistan’s Foreign Office spokesman remark on Thursday that there could be an accidental war if the eyeball to eyeball confrontation continued. That was the reason why, he said, Pakistan was pleading for talks to reduce tension. It now remains to be seen what specific action Pakistan’s friends in the US-led world coalition take to avert disaster. The British prime minister’s visit failed to break the ice between the two countries. All Tony Blair did was to serve as India’s messenger to Pakistan without having succeeded in New Delhi to get his host show some signs of moderation. For this reason, Islamabad and all world capitals interested in peace in South Asia look forward to Secretary Powell’s visit to the region.

Clearly, America has the means to ensure that the current confrontation does not lead to war. Pakistan, on its part, is more than willing to go the extra mile to move South Asia away from the brink. All along the crisis that began with the terrorist attack on the Indian parliament building on Dec 13, Pakistan has maintained a positive stance. It offered India a joint inquiry. It also welcomed the American offer of FBI assistance to track down the terrorists responsible for the attack. Islamabad also offered to take action against specific individuals, if India only provided evidence. Nevertheless, on its own, Islamabad took a number of steps to crack down on religious extremists in Pakistan. These steps have included the arrest of the top leaders of Jaish-i-Muhammad and Lashkar-i-Taiba; the round-up of a sizable number of their activists, and the freezing of the accounts of a large number of extremist organizations and individuals. Regretfully, India did not reciprocate Pakistan’s gestures. Pakistan can take more anti-terrorist measures. But India and its friends should know that Islamabad cannot afford a large-scale crackdown and a possible backlash while India masses troops on the borders. One hopes saner counsel will prevail in New Delhi, and Secretary Powell’s visit will be able to defuse the tension along the borders and lead hopefully to a resumption of the Agra process.

WB’s welcome support

IT is reassuring to note that the multilateral donors have resumed in right earnest their supportive role in Pakistan’s efforts to pull back from the brink of economic disaster. A clear manifestation of this was seen in the readiness with which these donors approved recently a medium-term loan of over one billion dollars for Pakistan from the IMF’s Poverty Alleviation and Growth Facility. They followed up on this by helping Islamabad get a significant reprofiling of its bilateral debt amounting to over 12 billion dollars. As a result, this debt has been effectively reduced by 30 per cent. And now comes the good tiding that the World Bank is considering increasing its level of annual lending from 500 million dollars to 750 million dollars from the next year. Understandably, Pakistan is getting the 500 million dollars from the WB’s International Development Assistance window at the nominal rate of 0.5 per cent and that, too, as a service charge with a repayment period of 45 years.

It would perhaps take some years for Pakistan’s economy to achieve the level at which it can hope to borrow from the IBRD window, which lends at an interest rate of six to seven per cent with a repayment period of 18 years. Therefore, while negotiating the increased assistance from the WB, the government would be well advised to resist the temptation of accepting even a blend of IDA and IBRD loans for at least another three years. It should request loans only from the IDA window for the time being. The other WB windows, like the International Finance Corporation and the Multilateral Investment Guarantee Agency, are exclusively private sector windows providing resources at reasonable rates to local and foreign private investors for setting up profitable manufacturing and infrastructural projects. The government should avoid providing sovereign guarantees against loans from these windows. In such cases, let the lender and borrower develop their own mechanisms to ensure repayment in time. Meanwhile, Pakistan should develop its own strategy to maximize socio-economic gains from the bank’s willingness to support up-front actions in Pakistan’s evolving reform programme aimed at improving governance, efficiency of the government machinery and the delivery of basic services.

Change of venue

THE decision to shift the scheduled series against the West Indies from Pakistan to Sharjah has sparked controversy and attracted strong criticism in cricketing circles at home. Two leading players and former captains — Intikhab Alam and Zaheer Abbas — have questioned this move as dangerous and illogical. The PCB authorities have, however, defended it as a mutually agreed settlement. While the tourists’ reluctance to come here in view of the security concerns is understandable, their refusal to reconsider the issue after firm assurance from our side is unjustified. A more reassuring statement by Clive Lloyd, the former West Indies captain who was in Pakistan on a short coaching stint, also went unheeded. England did come to India despite the existing tension, and no untoward incident occurred. Anyway, since the deadlock has been resolved the matter should be considered closed for the time being. But the sense of deprivation at this development cannot be wished away. After the cancellation of the New Zealand tour, this second disappointment hurts. In addition to this, the loss in financial terms will be substantial. Another factor is the lost psychological and circumstantial advantage that a home side legitimately gains on its own ground and before its own crowd.

Fortunately, the alternative in the Gulf is a favourite venue for Pakistan where conditions are more or less similar and the large population of Pakistan supporters will enjoy the spectacle. Sharjah, which has held many one-day internationals and multi-national matches, will be staging a regular Test series for the first time. Pakistan though aggrieved will be glad to partake in this elevating distinction for the promotion of cricket in this area.