January 11, 2002	Friday	Shawwal 26, 1422

LONDON: Gung-ho talk in Washington of making Iraq America’s next target after the war in Afghanistan alarms pro-Western Arab rulers and many European governments.

The drive to hunt Osama bin Laden and destroy his Taliban protectors in Afghanistan has been stressful enough for Muslim countries such as Saudi Arabia and Egypt, whose rulers have had to tread an awkward path between the demands of their US patrons and unease at bin Laden’s appeal to their own people.

Despite some signs that the United States will not rush into any Iraq adventure, Arab leaders can only cringe when American hawks crank up the decibels — as Senator John McCain did on Wednesday when he cried “Next up Baghdad” while visiting a US aircraft carrier in the Arabian Sea.

“They don’t like Saddam, but they fear street reaction,” Mustafa Karkouti, a London-based Syrian analyst, said of authoritarian Arab governments with close ties to the West.

The Arab League has declared its opposition to any attack on Iraq, though Gulf Arab states last week urged Baghdad to let UN arms inspections resume to avert more regional tension.

Iraq, which kicked out the inspectors in December 1998, says it has no weapons of mass destruction and wants a complete end to UN sanctions imposed for its 1990 invasion of Kuwait.

US President George W. Bush has fuelled speculation that his country might orchestrate a military campaign to topple Saddam Hussein by saying the Iraqi ruler must allow the return of the weapons inspectors or “find out” the consequences.

European members of the anti-terrorism coalition, including faithful US ally Britain, have long made plain their distaste for targeting Iraq, at least without clear proof it was involved in the September 11 attacks on New York and Washington.

Russia, surprisingly cooperative so far in the US-declared war on global terrorism, firmly opposes extending it to Iraq.

German Defence Minister Rudolf Scharping said this week the US-led coalition had no plan to attack Iraq. “There is no indication at all that there is any kind of military planning in connection with Iraq — completely to the contrary,” he said.

“No European country believes it is in the logic of the anti-terrorist drive to undertake something against Iraq,” French Foreign Minister Hubert Vedrine said last month.

Arab rulers dread the prospect even more keenly, aware that their own legitimacy and grip on power could be challenged by the impact of a new crisis on their restive populations.

Karkouti, citing widespread anti-Western sentiment among Arabs angered by Washington’s hostility to Iraq and support for Israel, said an attempt to bring down Saddam would cause acute strain for America’s traditional allies in the Middle East.

In Jordan, whose economy is closely linked to its Iraqi neighbour, former royal court chief Adnan Abu Odeh said it would be “good news” for the region if the hawks in Washington failed to win support for a full-blooded campaign to oust Saddam.

But he said the United States might not defer action for ever. “They will not give up the objective itself,” he said. Ť”Maybe they will wait for better circumstances.”

Abu Odeh said the Iraqi government was rattled by the threat of US action. “They are taking it very seriously in Baghdad. Sometimes they look nervous and sometimes unusually diplomatic,” he said. “They are oscillating between these extremes.”

The prospect of an attack on Iraq arouses deep misgivings in neighbouring Turkey, concerned that war could send refugees flooding across its borders and lead to a territorial break-up that might enable Kurds to carve out an independent state.

Turkey, which has battled its own autonomy-seeking Kurds for years, is a NATO member with military bases and assets which the Americans would want to use in any confrontation with Iraq. Turkish Prime Minister Bulent Ecevit, due in Washington next week, will seek to sway Bush to combat Saddam by non-military means, according to Turkish commentator Mehmet Ali Birand.

He said Turkey recognised that if the Americans decided to assault Iraq, it could not avoid involvement. “Ecevit will try to persuade Bush not to have a military operation, but he knows he can’t dictate to Washington,” Birand said.

Iraqi Kurds, who have held a northern enclave since the Gulf War, do not relish being seen as an anti-Saddam strike force on the lines of Afghanistan’s Northern Alliance, a role that would invite fearsome vengeance from Baghdad if things went wrong.—Reuters