PAKISTANIS and Indians living in the United States are polarized behind their governments over the recent events which have prompted India to mass troops on Pakistan’s borders, threatening military action.

With the threat of a nuclear confrontation hanging like the proverbial sword of Damocles, the topic of discussion, when they meet, invariably turns to the events at home.

While most Pakistanis here believe that the Dec 13 attack on the Indian parliament was orchestrated by that country’s intelligence services to beat war drums against Pakistan, taking the cue from the US and Israeli actions, the Indians believe that Pakistan’s cross-border terrorism policy should be confronted and crushed.

Although in conversations with their Pakistan counterparts the Indian business people in the Jackson Heights area in the borough of Queens also agree that war should be avoided but among themselves and in interviews with various local TV channels they agree with the policy of confrontation with Pakistan as enunciated by the BJP led government of Prime Minister A. B. Vajpayee.

The think-tanks here also believe that the Indian show of force could very well escalate into a full-fledged war and some even believe that Indian actions could end up helping Pakistan’s President Gen Pervez Musharraf in reining in the militants who he had deemed working against the national interest of the country.

Michael Krepon, a leading think-tank analyst, has said on PBS TV that he believes that Gen Musharraf is the only “standup” Muslim leader in the Islamic world who is likely to deliver what he promises, albeit under US pressure.

The pressure on Gen Musharraf to again deliver is immense. Some of the things he has been asked to do go against his own recent pronouncements in favour of the freedom struggle being waged in Kashmir by the militant groups accused by India of fermenting trouble in occupied Kashmir.

India, which wanted to become the frontline state in the US war on terrorism, saw the opportunity fade away when Washington chose Pakistan due to its proximity and knowledge of the region. Since then India has seen Pakistan’s importance rise, and the promises of economic aid from the international community bolstered Pakistan’s financial picture.

Many Pakistanis here say the prospect of Pakistan becoming a strong and vibrant economic power alongside India perhaps did not sit well with the Indians. They all point to the aborted hijacking on an Indian airlines plane from Bombay to New Delhi in November which was immediately seen as the work of Pakistan-backed militants. But it fizzled out in the face of intense scrutiny which could have occurred in the presence of the international media in the Indian capital.

Many Indian analysts say that despite Gen Musharraf’s crackdown, on the militant groups accused by India of carrying out the Dec 13 attack, may not be enough to stop a war between the nuclear rivals.

“We will wait and see but I don’t think we will wait forever,” independent analyst Prem Shankar Jha was quoted as saying in New Delhi, adding that it would take just one more big militant attack in India to prompt New Delhi to order its now fully mobilized army into action.

“Ultimately, India will have to fight this war. You cannot get away from it,” said another Indian analyst.

Washington is seemingly unhappy about the prospects of war between India and Pakistan which could undermine its campaign in Afghanistan. US President George Bush is under pressure to send a special envoy to New Delhi and Islamabad to defuse tensions. Mr Bush and his secretary of state have been burning phone lines, cautioning both countries to back off.

And although Prime Minister Vajpayee and President Musharraf will both attend a summit of South Asian countries in Nepal from Jan 4-6, no one is predicting a bilateral meeting which could end the standoff.

Mindful of the danger involved in a dispute between South Asia’s only nuclear powers, the world has been paying attention.

China has expressed alarm, and British Prime Minister Tony Blair will visit Islamabad and New Delhi next week to discuss the tensions.

Defence analysts say the buildup does not mean war will break out tomorrow. Both armies are highly disciplined and will not start a war without orders from their capitals.

Both are professional enough to prepare for war even if it does not happen. “Any military anywhere in the world is always making contingency plans,” they stressed.

But the scale of the buildup suggests that war, when or if it happens, could well be a full war stretching along the more than 3,000km border rather than a limited strike across the Line of Control.

On the Indian side, along with infantry and artillery, the 150km-range Prithvi surface-to-surface missiles, which are believed to be nuclear capable, have been deployed, analysts say.

“We are not talking in terms of Jammu and Kashmir. We’ll open all fronts,” said one Indian analyst.

India has long held off attacking Pakistan, in part fearing any deterioration into nuclear war, particularly if Islamabad starting losing badly enough that it turned to this final option.

Most Pakistanis here are of opinion that the nuclear option would be devastating for their country, in particular, and the South Asia, in general. But given the odds no one is ruling it out either.

THE institution of prayer is found in all religions of the world in one form or the other. All the great religious personalities have recognised that prayer is communion with God — a link between the slave and his master. Had there been no prayer, man’s life would have been completely rudderless and God would not have been a living force for him.

Islam added new meanings to prayer making it an article of faith and a “pillar of religion.” The inherent purpose of Islamic prayer is to realize the presence of God. Prayer divorced from this underlying spirit would be relegated to mere ritual. Of course, external movements are necessary for internal development of soul, but if one’s actions are incompatible with the noble precepts of religion, prayer will avail him no benefit and will not draw him near to God.

This unique idea in prayer teaches the worshipper to concentrate his heart on the Almighty Allah and humble himself before him. In one of his holy traditions, Prophet Muhammad (peace be upon him) called to mind that Allah had said, “How imprudent is he who aspires to My Gardens without working for it! How can I pour mercy on him who withholds obedience to Me!”

The importance of prayer in Islam can be gauged from the fact that it was the first religious duty (after the elements of faith) enjoined by Allah. It was ordained on the night of the Prophet’s ascension (Mairaj) to the heavens. Whereas injunctions for other acts of worship (fasting, poor-rate and pilgrimage) were revealed through the Archangel Gabriel, God spoke to His apostle about it directly with no intermediary. The holy Quran mentions of prayer at more than 100 places. The Prophet said, the first thing that the servant of God would be asked to account for on the day of Judgment would be prayer.

Allah has made prayer the way to success, prosperity and happiness for the believers. The Quran maintains: “The believers must (eventually) be prosperous who are humble in their prayers.” (Al-Muminun: 1&2). Humility in the above commandment implies: (1) the worshiper’s estimate of his own worth in Allah’s presence, (2) his estimate of his own power or strength unless he is helped by Allah, and, (3) the petition he offers unto Allah. These three considerations instil in him the feelings of utmost solemnity and submissiveness. Islam is an ethical religion. Apart from humility and submission to the glory of Allah, all its laws and injuctions are based on the most equitable and solid moral foundations as well. It places before us an ideal that has been an irresistible force and demands from its votaries a conduct which not only adorns individuals life, but contributes to the collective weal of the society at large. This is done by following the virtues of the Almighty. The Prophet exhorted, “Imbue yourself with divine attributes.”

Prayer performed in its true form and spirit provides us an opportunity to annoint ourselves with divine virtues which may be put into practice in our working life with the other fellow-beings. In a word, the moral significance of prayer is character-building. It endows and ennobles man with such attributes like truthfulness, honesty, moderation, integrity, understanding, modesty, fairness and generosity. His moral standards are raised and he himself rises above injustice, enmity, iniquity, obscenity and defiance. It kills devilish tendencies and helps acquire the angelic ones. The holy Prophet is reported to have said, “He whose prayer has not restained him from evil and misdeeds has only increased his distance from God.” The Quran asserts: “... Prayer restrains from indecency and evil. And remembrance of Allah is the greatest thing in life. And Allah knows the (deeds) that you do.” (Al-Ankabut: 45).

Sincere devotion is the sine qua non of prayer. Actions and intentions must be in complete harmony. No thoughts repugnant to a state of humility may be allowed to enter the mind. On the contrary, one must concern oneself only with thoughts of Allah and dependence on Him. He should concentrate on what is read. He should heed the commands of the holy Quran which was revealed by the Lord of Might and Omnipotence to His last and the choicest Messenger. For prayer, it is only right that one should collect one’s whole mind and approach Allah in a spirit of reverence. The Quran cautions: “O you who believe! Approach not prayer when you are intoxicated until you know (the meaning) of what you utter...” (Al-Nisa: 43)

The above commandment was revealed before the prohibition of intoxication altogether was promulgated. But, even at that time it was at least unbecoming that people should come to prayer in a state of inebriation. According to Imam Ghazali (Ihya Ulum ad-Din)), the word “intoxicated” in the above verse means not only intoxication of the senses with wine (or other intoxicant) but also the state of being distracted by the thoughts and temptations of the world, so as to be oblivious of one’s duties towards God. One may be unconscious of what he is uttering even without being intoxicated with a drug.

Man will be greatly helped in attending solely to the words and meanings of what he recites or listens and in realizing the spirit of prayers if he feels the reverence born of the consciousness of standing before the Divine Being, feeling of awe produced by the realization of his Divine majesty and grandeur and hope and regret generated by one’s shortcomings like rancour, hatred, envy, dissimulation, hypocrisy. The believers have been told that Allah sees them and that nothing at all may be hidden from Him: “(Allah) knows of (the tricks) That deceive with the eyes, And all that the hearts (Of men) conceal.” (Ghair: 19)

Thus, prayer becomes a remedy for the ills which beset the heart and corrupt the soul. It is the light which dispels the darkness of evil and sin. Hazrat Abu Huraira (RA) reported that the Messenger of Allah said, “Inform me that if there be a river by the side of the door of any one of you where he takes bath five times a day — would any of the dirt be left?” “No,” they said. He said: “thus are the prayers of five times. Allah blots out all sins therewith.” Just as body is washed of external impurities by bath, soul is washed of internal impurities by prayer.

ARCHITECT Arif Hasan aptly observes, while writing about the Northern Bypass and the Lyari Expressway in these columns, that development plans for Karachi must be shared with the citizens, the academia, the press and various non-government organizations and that public hearings be held about them before they are finalized. It may also be pertinent to recognize that because of the profound effect that such projects may exercise over the future of the city and its residents, the ultimate authority for okaying such plans must rest only with Karachi’s local authorities.

The debate between proponents and opponents of the Northern Bypass and the Lyari Expressway, both projects supposedly conceived to relieve pressure of port-related traffic from Karachi’s municipal roads, continues unabated as the decision to develop “one or both” was simply doled out by the federal authorities and lacked credible local participation. Even the implementation of these projects has been entrusted to a federal agency — the National Highway Authority.

The federal government in a bid to decongest the Karachi Port Trust had also developed a fuel-oil terminal, Fotco near Port Qasim, at a cost of over 80 million dollars. The Pakistan State Oil has spent millions on the Zulfiqarabad Oil Terminal near Bin Qasim for the filling of tankers travelling upcountry. A container terminal has also been added to Port Qasim amid a steady rise in cargo-handling at the dry ports in the Punjab and the NWFP. Yet at least the current level of cargo activity will continue in the foreseeable future at the KPT.

The Northern Bypass was conceived as a 68-kilometre-long road project as part of Karachi Development Authority’s Master Plan proposals during 1975-85. The current cost estimates for the proposed bypass stands at 15 billion rupees.

The proposal for construction of the Lyari Expressway is also many years old. The limited-access expressway along the Lyari River was considered to be a more viable option but due to excessive encroachments an alternative proposal for a 16- kilometre-long elevated expressway over the bed of the perennial river seemed the only workable solution. The estimated cost during 1989 for the elevated expressway was eight billion rupees while 1996 estimates for bank roads were approximately three billion rupees.

Both the Northern Bypass and the Lyari Expressway propose to dump nearly 4,500 vehicles daily from Karachi Port Trust for upcountry on the Super and the National highways, both located east of the city. The average number of vehicles per kilometre on the either side of the 68-kilometre-long Northern Bypass works out to be less than three per hour (4,500 vehicles / 68 kilometres / 24 hours = 2.75 vehicles). Similarly the probability of port-related vehicles on the either side of the 16-kilometre Lyari Expressway remains less than 12 (4500 vehicles / 16 kilometres / 24 hrs = 11.72 vehicles).

It remains an open secret that Karachi will continue to face the major problem of water scarcity in the future. The two major conduits of water supply from the River Indus and the Hub River enter from the east and northeast near the Steel mills and Madinatul Hikmat. The city is growing along all extremities of its amorphous master plan, whereas, paradoxically, its entire conduits for public utilities and vital perishable food supply movement are clustered along its eastern flanks. Vital life supply arteries must therefore span across Karachi’s city centre and many neighbourhoods to reach a growing number of consumption points along its various boundaries.

The population of the city will no doubt continue to grow in the 21st century. It is estimated that the number of people will exceed the 20 million mark by 2015. The real problem is that the Northern Bypass promises to define the future demography of the city with disastrous effects over the western districts of Karachi. Clearly it’s illogical, inopportune and cost-ineffective in any rational evaluation as to Karachi’s projected optimal direction for growth. We desperately need a last-ditch effort to at least try and control the area and direction of the city’s growth if the future fatal consequences of our actions are to be avoided.

Advocates for the Northern Bypass say that heavy port traffic should not be allowed to pass through residential areas as this only adds to the noise pollution and the degradation of air quality. They tend to forget certain vital statistic for the city including the fact that in 1985 Karachi had approximately 400,000 registered vehicles. That number had risen to some 900,000 by 1996 and reaching 1.32 million by mid 2001. With such a large number of carbon dioxide, carbon mono-oxide, lead and sulphur emitting vehicles, multiplying exponentially, it is exceedingly difficult to really believe that 9,000 or so vehicle trips per day projected for the Lyari Expressway would amount to any real consequence. In any case, whether we have a bypass or an expressway the menace of overcrowding and traffic pollution is here to stay until we develop a decent public transport system for Karachi.

On the other hand millions of lives and property worth billions of rupees may be at risk in the catchment area and the adjoining urban areas of the Lyari-river, which constitute major storm water drain for the city of Karachi. To save the lives and property of people living in this treacherous zone, they should be immediately relocated. The danger is very real and the history of the effects of flash-floods in Lyari River is well documented. Not to mention that every successive flash-flood has rendered existing conditions worse.

However, another option may be to construct proper embankments, dredge and channelize the Lyari River to safeguard whatever we can in terms of human settlements located there. The Water and Power Development Authority had conducted a study after the disastrous floods of 1977 submitting detailed recommendations to the government of Pakistan. It was also identified that action according to these recommendations will also result in generating large chunks of land that could be used to rehabilitate the affected and construction of the expressway along both embankments of the Lyari channel rather than over it. The toll potential of port-related traffic could be effectively used for implementation of the project. This would also immensely improve the city’s environment by curtailing of release of sewage being dumped through illegal connections, as well as the dumping of solid waste and untreated industrial effluents into Lyari River. These embankments along with twin expressways would also help create a physical barrier to check future encroachments over the riverbanks and the bed of the river. Construction of the Lyari Expressway does not induce pollution as its opponents claim; this twin expressway is probably our only option to check environmental degradation of the city.

During 1995 the Karachi Metropolitan Corporation cleared more than 800,000 square metres of land, over four kilometres of Lyari riverbed and its two banks, from commercial encroachments and land grabbers at Mauripur roadside. A concerted demolition of commercial encroachments would release much desirable land for commercial and recreational developments and generate revenues for possible reinvestments in community development, not to mention a stream of labour-intensive employments in the poorest section of inner city. That coupled with suitably aggressive environment measures and planned relocation of pollution causing units including workshops from alongside the river to the city’s suburban extremities could provide the optimal solution to a better planned and functioning metropolis. But then the project should be considered as a rehabilitation of people living in the Lyari corridor and the construction of the Lyari Expressway along the safety embankments only a component of the project.

There may be many views in such a debate. Until the city rationally decides for itself through due deliberations and careful weighing of planning options by a duly elected city council, there will always remain a genuine danger of a city of twelve million people, hanging in limbo and held hostage to powerful vested interests and to failed dreamers.

BOTH the PPP and the PML (Quaid-i-Azam), Sukkur city, are faced with a major problem, i.e. who would head their city chapters now. The last local bodies election witnessed some major changes in the PPP structure, as its city president, Syed Kazim Ali Shah, contested the seat of taluka Nazim for Sukkur and got elected with a safe margin against Hanif Memon of the PML.

Kazim Shah has long served as the Sukkur city president of the PPP, with Mushtaq Surhiyo as his general secretary and a bunch of good workers like Jamil Sahito, Shoukat Baloch and Dr Nasrullah. With his elevation as taluka Nazim, the problem for the party here has been as to who should be elevated to this post.

Some top leaders of Sukkur, including former MPA Ghulam Qadir Bhutto, Zila Nazim Syed Nasir Hussain Shah and Zila Nazim of Ghotki Ali Gohar Khan Maher are in Dubai to consult party chairperson Benazir Bhutto about the matter. Ms Bhutto is also in touch with party cadres here through e-mail, according to Hadi Bux Bekhrani, a leader of the Asif Zardari Bachao Committee.

According to circles close to Qadir Bhutto, among the candidates for the Sukkur city PPP president the name of Shoukat Baloch, son of a former PPP diehard, the late Sardar Dhani Bux Baloch, is on top of the list.

Ms Bhutto has also to take a decision about the general secretary of the party as Mushtaq Surhiyo, also a loyalist, is critically ill these days and has shown his inability to carry on his responsibility.

There has been some shakeup in the ranks of all parties in view of the upcoming election. The Pakistan Muslim League of Mian Azhar is badly affected here by the death of its district president Syed Abid Hussain Shah Musvi, a straightforward and blunt politician.

Ghous Bux Maher, Sindh PML chief, will have to take a quick decision to name the chief for the Sukkur city because the party here is in disarray.

As efforts to strengthen party position continue, Aftab Shahban Mirani is said to be trying hard to bring some more people into the party fold. A confirmed report is that Mr Mirani, on behalf of Ms Bhutto, has formally invited Ghous Bux Maher to join the party. Some insiders even maintain that Mr Maher has been offered the slot of Sindh presidentship. Perhaps the Sindh Democratic Alliance, led by bureaucrat-turned-politician Imtiaz Ahmed Shaikh, has been giving some tough time to the PPP that the latter has drawn a strategy to attract such forgotten people as Mr Maher and Hazar Khan Bijarani to the party.

Imtiaz Shaikh, with his contacts in the bureaucracy, has influence with leading groups like the Jatois, Arbabs, Pagaras and Mahers. His SDA is capable of giving a tough time to anyone in the coming election. Thus PPP elders are in contact with Hazar Khan Bijarani about the latter’s rejoining the party. In the last LB polls, his son Shabbir Ali Bijarani was supported by the PPP.

Moreover, there are reports that Governor Mohammedmian Soomro is in contact with the PPP leaders. It is being said he may resign in order to contest the next election as a PPP candidate. This would not be something new because Umar Asghar Khan has already tendered his resignation and formed his own party. Through the promulgation of an ordinance Mr Soomro may be allowed to contest the poll.

The PPP people are also in contact with former MPA Taj Muhammad Shaikh about rejoining the party, in the backdrop of the problem he had created for the party in the last election for the district Nazim. Taj Shaikh had got 379 votes as against over 570 votes polled by Nasir Shah. So, in future he could create trouble in the contest for the seats of MPA and MNA in Sukkur and Rohri. Taj Shaikh had been in the PPP previously, but later joined the PPP (SB). He is nowadays with the Sindh Democratic Alliance and is likely to be fielded for the MPA seat in Rohri.

The month of Ramazan this time was different from the past ones insofar as there were no Iftar parties to attract cross-sections of political workers or for renewal of relations. The PPP did not hold a single Iftar party; the Jamaat-i-Islami had one or two, the two PMLs too had none.

SHISHAM — one of the most precious tree species — is confronted with a gigantic problem in the form of dieback for the last four years owing to an unknown disease which is gradually wiping off this vital tree in the country, while scientists are beating the drum for its successful cure.

Multipurpose shisham species in Pakistan are said to be grown for decades away from their natural ecological habitat and were introduced in Changa Manga Plantation in 1866. The shisham is also known as an earning hand of poor farmers in Saarc countries due to its wide range use.

Farmers claim they groom the shisham from generation to generation due to their elders’ advice that this ‘magic’ will always provide a relief in severe financial constraints, besides providing dowry for the marriage of their daughters.

The multi-dimensional use of shisham has made it popular among the farming community because the plough, other farm implements and furniture are made of it. Its branches are also used for firewood and preparation of baskets, etc.

All of a sudden, this species fell victim to an unknown disease which in the language of farmers is said to be ‘cancer’. Four years after the disease surface the foresters, researchers, entomologists, agronomists, soil chemists and physiologists have not been able to save this tree.

Any one who travels on any road along farms and canal banks is shocked to see the dry shisham trees with no branches, leafs or an iota of normal life.

Forest department sources revealed that over 30,000 trees of shisham had already vanished causing a huge loss to the government and farmers. Many seminars and workshops were held and research institutes tried to chalk out a strategy to save the tree, but the problem of quick wilting decline and dieback still continues.

Recently, four teams comprising research scholars of environment, soil, microbiology, water logging and salinity, forest management and silviculture presented a number of recommendations to the government to check the dieback menace.

The experts stressed close working relationship and networking between all institutions and universities engaged in shisham dieback research for the elimination of this disease; sponsorship of MSc and PhD students for shisham dieback research projects at universities; study of soil characteristics, including soil texture and structure, porosity, water holding capacity, organic matter content, etc; presence or absence of beneficial/harmful microbes may be explored and research concentrated on their isolation; initiating of culture inoculation at nursery stage and additionally, prevention and control measures against harmful microbes.

The scientists suggested that macro and micro-nutrients, soil organic matter contents, alkalinity and sodicity could play an important role in the spread of the disease. According to them, soil nutrient research should be intensified. Besides other factors which were causing death of shisham trees, water logged conditions causing lack of aeration and impeding drainage should be amended to improve the trees.

They also proposed that soil texture — aeration (porosity) should be investigated for correlation with dieback, hardpan be investigated for affect of drainage (percolation), availability of nutrients, root penetration, natural association with sissoo tree, inoculation of seedlings, specify the causal organism of dieback and pathologic retesting, etc.

They said since old stumps and roots were responsible for spread of pathogenic fungi such as root rot and collar rot, these should be removed before starting new plantation; all silvicultural operations such as cleaning and thinning must be carried out faithfully to improve the hygienic conditions of the trees, besides isolation of affected areas from unaffected areas by deep trenching.

The experts suggested that shisham seedlings and root shoot cuttings must be screened for pathogenicity and dipped in fungicide before planting.

They also recommended that survey should include silvicultural systems and practices, sites qualities and site conditions, water stress analysis (requirement, mode and regime), physical and chemical properties of soils, designed to correlate the causes with symptoms.

By another recommendation, they called for establishment of seed orchards and seed production areas in different ecological zones, genetic improvement of trees, production of superior planting stock, strengthening of the seed supply system, training in the disciplines of tree improvement and seed handling practices, dissemination of important research findings to end users, soil drenching with suitable chemicals, fungicidal pasting of base of diseased trees, maintaining hygienic condition, test sowing and planting season/dates, test to find out appropriate spacing and cover crops, investigate effect of pruning, pollarding, thinning and removal of dead trees, exposure to sun of the affected tree roots at initial stage of dieback symptoms, solarization of infested area after removal of diseased trees and polythene mulching to disinfect soils.

The experts stressed that there should be no coppicing crop in diseased areas, isolation of diseased trees by deep trenching, addition of organic material in the soil, cultivation of alternate crops resistant to dieback, test and cultivate dieback resistant cultivars, trial of different seed sources and provenances, use of seed from disease resistant trees, trial on introduction of other economic species of dalbergia, mixed cropping with alternate rows of shisham and other compatible species, marking of dieback resistant genes through genetic engineering techniques, production of transgenic plants, production of certified and disease free seed and planting stock, registration of certified nurseries, IPM (Integrated Pest Management) should be introduced, coordinated efforts are required in survey, research and control and imposition of forest plant guarantee for all material coming from abroad.