NEW DELHI, Dec 28: A scenario devised as a model by the US Naval War College ends with Pakistan and India in a limited nuclear exchange in which millions of people die after tension over Kashmir boils over.
The simulation was conducted soon after the two countries carried out nuclear tests in 1998, but the scenario is chillingly similar to the current threat of war.
It also highlights the dangers of both countries’ failure to establish cross-border safety measures to minimize the risk of a dispute flaring into nuclear catastrophe.
In the simulation, India, blaming Pakistan for the downing of a plane carrying top ministers and military brass over occupied Kashmir, launches air and artillery strikes on what it called guerilla bases inside Azad Kashmir.
Pakistan responds with conventional forces, but fear of India’s superiority in that area prompt it to launch a nuclear strike, triggering nuclear retaliation from New Delhi and killing more than two million people.
When? The scenario was set in 2003.
The lack of any safety mechanisms to prevent an accidental exchange of nuclear weapons or a miscalculation by leaders of either nation has been a concern since they crossed the nuclear rubicon.
Hopes of any progress on reducing the nuclear risk have now faded after Vajpayee said he would not hold one-on-one talks with President Pervez Musharraf during the SAARC summit in Kathmandu next week.
In the current climate, some analysts doubt the summit will even go ahead, despite assurances from New Delhi.
Experts on both sides of the border and abroad have long argued Pakistan and India need, above all, to establish joint measures to boost nuclear safety.
“The need for a common language to understand each other’s signalling, such as sounding different states of alert in an emergency, is of supreme importance to defuse future crises and avoid conflict,” said P.R. Chari, a nuclear expert at the Institute of Peace and Conflict Studies.
More than three years after their nuclear tests, the composition, size and deployment patterns of Indian and Pakistani forces remain unclear, adding to the risk of miscalculation or accident.
Worse still, India, which plans an ambitious nuclear arsenal based on ships, missiles and aircraft, has yet to establish a clear nuclear command and control structure.
The only thing known about India’s secretive nuclear system is that the button lies in the hands of the prime minister. There is also a cabinet committee on security including the defence and foreign ministers which would presumably be consulted before any deployment.
But beyond that nothing is known about the nuclear chain of command which will carry out the government’s orders. The role of the military, which was kept out of the nuclear weapons programme from the start, remains unclear.
“The virtual non-involvement of the armed forces in the country’s nuclear weapons programme has undermined the credibility of India’s nuclear deterrent and raised doubts about the security of nuclear weapons,” wrote nuclear expert Gurmeet Kanwal in the Strategic Analysis, a publication of the government-funded Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses.
Pakistan, whose nuclear programme caused concern in the early stages of the US-led military campaign in Afghanistan, has in contrast established a Nuclear Command and Control Authority consisting of military, political and scientific officials.
WASHINGTON MAY BE NEEDED: Indian officials say Pakistan has been faster in setting forth its nuclear structures because its programme has always been controlled by the military.
“They see these weapons as military weapons, meant for use in the battlefield,” said a top defence official. “India perceives them as political weapons valued for their deterrence effect.”
The bombs on both sides are thought to be in storage, rather than loaded onto planes or missiles.
An Indian political expert said the United States may ultimately have to step in to prod the two countries to build nuclear confidence measures.
DIPLOMATIC MIRACLE: Other analysts say only a “diplomatic miracle” can avert looming war between Pakistan and India.
“Any tactical or defensive move by one side may be perceived as a strategic threat by the other and trigger an explosion,” said noted defence analyst Hassan Askari Rizvi.
“It is a very, very dangerous standoff. Guns may start roaring any time unless the world powers and the United Nations use their good offices to perform a diplomatic miracle by defusing tension,” Rizvi said.
“The world powers should convince India that Pakistan is already taking measures to restrain the militant groups and therefore a dialogue on the contentious issues will be desirable.”
“A military showdown looks inevitable,” said independent defence analyst and commentator M.A. Niazi.—AFP/ Reuters
