October 29, 2001	Monday	Shaba'an 11, 1422

PESHAWAR: The Taliban regime’s execution on Friday of opposition leader Abdul Haq has exposed deep weaknesses in the ability of the movement’s Afghan opponents to create an alternative government, analysts say.

More broadly, the episode reflects the failure of the exiled opposition to prove that it has military and political credibility inside Afghanistan and that it can mount a serious challenge to the Taliban. Largely based here, this diaspora of former guerrilla commanders, politicians and mullahs seems to have lost touch with the situation on the ground in Afghanistan, analysts said.

“These guys are too comfortable with the present situation, and as a result, their influence inside Afghanistan has diminished,” said a Western diplomat with many years of experience in the region. “They want some sort of sanitized replacement of the Taliban, so they can move in and take power. But it’s not going to happen that way. The Taliban is going to be very difficult to dislodge.”

For the United States, Haq’s execution was another setback in the effort to topple the Taliban. After three weeks of relentless US bombing, the Taliban does not appear to have sustained serious casualties and has lost little territory to the opposition Northern Alliance, which is mostly made up of ethnic Tajiks and Uzbeks. And in recent days, US military officials have expressed surprise at the Taliban’s tenacity.

“The United States and many of the Afghan exiles thought that the Taliban would collapse very quickly. Abdul Haq was saying that it would take a few days for the Taliban to fall,” said Ijaz Khan, an international relations professor at the University of Peshawar. “Abdul Haq and others misjudged the strength of the Taliban’s support.”

US officials denied that they sent Haq on a mission into Afghanistan to try to buy the support of tribal leaders. Taliban officials accused Haq of spying for the United States and said that he had two satellite phones and US dollars with him when he was captured.“He did not receive any money or material support from us. He wasn't working for us” said a US official. “But he was realistic enough to know that this would involve giving out some money.”

Haq’s death has thrown the opposition into further disarray. Representatives of the exiled king and the Northern Alliance were scheduled to meet in Istanbul, Turkey, this weekend to organize a 120-member leadership that might serve as a government-in-waiting. The meeting has been postponed indefinitely.

The Taliban, on the other hand, appear emboldened by Haq’s killing. Taliban forces claimed ON Saturday to have hanged five Northern Alliance commanders captured after a repelled attack on the city of Mazar-e-Sharif. More significantly, diplomats said, Haq’s execution might give pause to moderate Taliban officials who are considering defecting.—Dawn/LAT-WP News Service (c) Newsday.