October 26, 2001	Friday	Shaba'an 8, 1422

WASHINGTON: Shimon Peres had been in Condoleezza Rice’s office for about 15 minutes, mournfully explaining to the national security adviser the latest downward twist in the news from his country, when the president arrived. In White House jargon, such encounters are known as ‘drop-bys’ and they are used to deliver precise messages. The message this time was clear: get your troops out of Palestinian areas. By his own account, the Israeli foreign minister told Bush that the army had no desire to be there and that it would pull out as soon as possible.

Peres may or may not have known it at the time, but as he was reassuring Bush, Israeli soldiers were preparing to make yet another incursion. Less than five hours after the White House meeting, soldiers moved into the West Bank village of Beit Reema in an assault which killed at least seven Palestinians, and took the Middle East another inch towards chaos. The Bush administration had known for months that its control over the Israeli prime minister, Ariel Sharon, was tenuous at best. Wednesday’s raid on Beit Reema was a neon-bright indicator of Sharon’s complete disregard for President Bush’s opinions.

The Middle East situation now threatens to trigger a crisis in the Bush administration’s pursuit of its war on terrorism. The bombing campaign is already chipping away at the ground beneath Washington’s Arab allies, who have been pleading for US intervention to dampen the flames of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.

Sean McCormack, a spokesman for the national security council, restated the president’s position on Wednesday that ”Israeli troops should withdraw from Area A (Palestinian-run districts) immediately.” But US officials now say their capacity to influence events on the ground is at an all-time low. Sharon is turning open defiance of Washington into a pillar of his government’s policy.

The usual tools of US diplomacy in the region now look flimsy. The secretary of state, Colin Powell, has been planning for several weeks to make a landmark policy speech laying out a clear blueprint for Israeli-Palestinian cohabitation, including the creation of a viable Palestinian state, with a share of Al Quds as its capital.

“That can be one of the threats held over Sharon’s head,” said Judith Kipper, of the Council on Foreign Relations in Washington. “But in the end it is just a speech. It is just words, and it is not going to have much effect on Sharon. He just doesn’t care.” Kipper said that only strong actions, involving some form of sanctions, would send an effective message, but she added: “This administration doesn’t have the stomach to use the big guns. The relationship between the two countries is so deep, so intertwined.”

The US gives $1 billion worth of annual military assistance to Israel. Paradoxically, the subsidy does not represent a useful lever. Cutting it would be politically perilous. In Jewish-American and conservative circles, President Bush’s father has still not been forgiven for merely threatening to withdraw loan guarantees nine years ago - a factor in his 1992 election defeat. Moreover, it is far from clear what impact economic measures would have on an Israeli leader who has already embraced international isolation as a badge of martyrdom.

The assassination of the Israeli cabinet minister Rehavam Zeevi, and the Israeli incursions - all at a time when Washington’s hands are tied in the Middle East - has triggered a sense of near panic at the state department. Some US diplomats believe that Sharon is prepared to bring down the Palestinian Authority and reoccupy the areas it now runs. The state department believes Arafat’s fall would ignite chaos in Gaza and the West Bank. One option, Kipper said, was to dispatch the CIA director, George Tenet, who has the confidence of some of the most powerful Palestinians, including the security chiefs, Djibril Rajoub and Mohammad Dahlan.

As the situation slips from crisis to disaster in the Middle East, Washington finds itself all but paralysed in its response. George Bush came to office saying he would leave it to both sides of the Israeli-Palestinian divide to end the violence. That hands-off policy now looks redundant, leaving the president with nothing credible to offer in its place.—Dawn/The Guardian News Service.