October 16, 2001	Tuesday	Rajab 28, 1422

LONDON: As an Afghan, I was heartened by the British prime minister’s promise, in his speech to the Labour party conference, that the present crisis in Afghanistan would be tackled with a comprehensive strategy. However, now that bombs have started falling on Afghanistan, I am increasingly anxious about the manner in which the US and Britain are conducting this affair and whether any good will come out of it.

I accept that to get rid of the Taliban, fighting a war with conventional means may be inevitable. However it is highly likely that military action will deepen the existing crisis unless it is undertaken with a proper strategy and against the right targets. As far as the wider military agenda is concerned, strengthening the Northern Alliance and relying on them as a primary strategic tool is bound to be counterproductive. In addition, it will be very worrying if, in the interests of maintaining the global coalition, the US yielded excessively to the demands of Afghanistan’s neighbours. This could be detrimental to the interests of Afghans.

This is not the first time innocent Afghans have been embroiled in a conflict in which they have little stake. When the Afghans fought against the Russians, the issue was not just national liberation; our cause was the cause of the free world. If the US and its allies had not then left us to clear up the mess, if Afghanistan had not been abandoned to the mercy of its hawkish neighbours, Americans would not have to fight another war there today. Now that this unfortunate situation has arisen, the verbal reassurance of politicians is not enough. Action should speak louder than words.

Protracted military engagement in Afghanistan will lead to political and humanitarian disaster. The Afghan people, already fed up with bombing and violence, cannot long endure a new set of bombers.

By providing unconditional support to one warring faction in the Afghan conflict, the US and Britain are effectively reinforcing the dynamics of conflict and undermining the possibilities of a comprehensive solution. Using the Northern Alliance as a de facto ground force may seem the obvious option, but this is inappropriate and potentially dangerous.

Warlords are the problem, not the solution in Afghanistan. It is hard to imagine that, given our experience of their past, the Northern Alliance can be trusted to deliver the country to peace. There must be no doubt that these extremely violent and organizationally anarchic forces simply cannot produce the effective leadership the country needs.

One specific danger arising from the Northern Alliance’s military ascendancy is the likelihood that certain forces within the alliance will resort to revenge and arbitrary violence in the areas that are currently controlled by the Taliban. It is clear that for most people, in both rural and urban areas, the fear of returning to the anarchy of the pre-Taliban period has been a major factor discouraging an indigenous uprising against the Taliban. The main reason that their brutish regime has survived for so long is that the alternative is worse.

Given the intense military and diplomatic pressure the Taliban are facing, it is very likely that their regime will break down sooner than we expect. The Northern Alliance will exploit the opportunity to prevail militarily throughout the country. Before it is too late, the western forces must make sure that the military ambitions of the alliance are kept in check.

The way forward is for the west to press ahead with a political strategy. The challenge is to support the emergence of an effective leadership at the national level. Afghan society is not as divided as it appears on the surface; the shared experiences of suffering and misery unite them and it is likely that they will rally behind a leadership that can offer them a shared vision of peace. In the absence of any viable alternative, the former king, Zahir Shah, presents a promising option.

The king is potentially capable of creating a national consensus. However, for this to translate into a functioning mechanism for government, there must be a concerted campaign to develop an inclusive and legitimate political process. Afghans from all sections of society should be involved. This should include both the Northern Alliance and the remnants of the Taliban, but this must be done in a purely political capacity.

Demilitarization must the first step in the formation of the political process. In addition, while the US and its allies will have to sponsor the political process, it must be owned by Afghans and must have roots in their shared history. Moreover, the formation of a political leadership will prove ineffectual if not accompanied by the revival and development of the core institutions of the state.—Dawn/The Guardian News Service.