As dollar dips

THE sharp fall in the value of the dollar relative to the rupee in the beginning of the week and a modest recovery later has not been due to any change in the economic fundamentals of the country; they reflect the politico-economic uncertainty that prevails in the region. This uncertainty is going to affect Pakistan the most. In the wake of September 11 events in the US, the dollar became unstable in apprehension of a war-like situation resulting in an increased inflow of the greenback in the form of aid and defence spending. At the same time, there appeared a change in the attitude of those who were holding dollars or intending to buy them. Many of the former started unloading them in panic to contain losses resulting from the falling value and the latter withheld their transactions in anticipation of still larger gains. This upset the equilibrium that had prevailed for some time.

Immediately after the attacks on the World Trade Centre in New York and the Pentagon in Washington Pakistan was projected to become the front-line state and most of the causes that had created a demand for the greenbacks and value-fall of the rupee began to be less effective. All the sanctions and barriers to aid and trade against Pakistan began to fall one by one and the prospects of a dollar inflow brightened. Simultaneously, indications by the US and the European countries that they would probe international financial transactions, keep suspect accounts under surveillance and place restrictions on hundi transfers caused panic among those Pakistanis and expatriates who thought they might not be able to explain their assets or transactions. As a consequence, they found greater security for their money in their home country.

No doubt, the value-increase of the rupee provides psychological satisfaction to the people and reduces debt liabilities in terms of domestic resources. However, an increased supply of dollars unrelated to domestic factors pushing up the value of the rupee harms the country’s exports, both visible and invisible. Pakistani exporters getting less rupees for a dollar find themselves compelled to raise the prices of their merchandise which may not be acceptable to foreign buyers. The Export Promotion Bureau has estimated that if the conflict is prolonged and the rupee retains its enhanced value Pakistan’s export earnings are likely to fall by $ 1.5 billion during the current year. The rupee’s gain is conducive to the health of the economy only if it results from the persistent surplus in the balance of trade or a surplus in balance of payments as a result of an increase in investment. Fluctuations that have marked rupee-dollar parity this week also tend to discourage foreign investment. What the government should strive for in the present situation is to seek long-term improvement in economic fundamentals through increased access to the markets of the industrialized countries and debt write-off and not its restructuring. That will provide stability to the value of the rupee as well in the long run.

Hijacking that wasn’t

WHEN is a hijacking not a hijacking? When it happens, or in this case doesn’t happen, somewhere in the skies between Mumbai and New Delhi. The ‘hijacking’ of an Alliance Air flight on Wednesday night seemed nothing short of a comedy of errors. All the various ingredients of a perfect farce were present in the official version of the incident: misunderstandings and coincidences formed the basis of the drama starring a cast of bungling officials, jittery pilots and an officious passenger. The villains, meanwhile, remained off stage for the length of the proceedings and when the cavalry finally stormed in there was little for them to do.

The drama began when an anonymous caller informed air traffic control in Ahmedabad that a Delhi-bound flight had been hijacked. Without checking on the veracity of the information, Ahmedabad alerted the pilot as well as the authorities. While the pilots locked themselves in the cockpit believing the hijackers were somewhere there among the passengers, the travellers thought the hijackers were in the cockpit. To add to the confusion, one pushy passenger claiming to be a senior official began to bang on the cockpit door demanding to be let in. This only confirmed the pilots’ worst fears. With the media entering the fray, things got even more confusing. One television channel somehow discovered that the two phantom hijackers spoke broken English and were asking about weather conditions in Lahore! Several hours after the take-off, following epic high-level meetings on the ground, the plane was stormed by commandos at Delhi airport.

The passengers were furious at the inept handling of the affair and some even darkly hinted that there was indeed a hijacking which had been covered up for some mysterious reasons. While the panicky action and reaction of the officials and travellers is somewhat understandable considering that the hijackings in the US last month were still fresh in many minds, there seems to be little excuse for the lengthy farce that ensued at Delhi airport. It is difficult to believe why an incident that was first officially described as a hijacking, then as a security drill and finally put down to a ‘miscommunication’ could drag on for so long before it was resolved. Lingering doubts still remain about this bizarre incident and many questions will need to be answered in the days ahead.

Lost in the labyrinth

ACCORDING to a report, it has taken 28 long years for a murder case to reach its conclusion. This is indeed a scandalous state of affairs and reflects poorly on the country’s judicial machinery. Three men were accused of a murder that took place in May 1973. The case dragged on for a number of years at the end of which they were found guilty and sentenced to a prison term. An appeal was filed with the high court in 1995 but another six years elapsed before a hearing could be held. Finally, the high court decided that because the accused had spent enough time in prison and had endured immense mental agony, an appeal should be allowed. Unfortunately, the case took so long to conclude that one of the accused died during the course of the trial. It would be valid to say that such delays in the dispensation of justice are tantamount to a gross miscarriage. In many cases, the time suspects spend in prison is much longer than the maximum prison term they would receive if found guilty. A suspect could spend, say, three years in prison waiting for a trial to conclude only to be convicted and sentenced to one year in prison. In such an eventuality, who will return to the convict the two years of his life that were wasted waiting for justice to be done?

In the past, directives have been issued by the highest judicial authority asking all subordinate courts to expedite the massive backlog of cases. Delays can occur for a variety of reasons. The most obvious is that there simply are too many cases and too few courts. The government needs to fill all sanctioned posts promptly. The other reason for delays is possible impropriety on the part of certain judicial officers. Also adding to the problem is the lack of support infrastructure such as police escorts or vans that prevents undertrial prisoners from being transported to court premises. The government and the concerned judicial authorities must try to ensure that cases are heard and judgments delivered within a reasonable period. This is by no means a demand to take short-cuts in the dispensation of justice; rather it is a plea for a legal system that does not keep so many people’s lives on hold for what must seem like an eternity to the accused.