SARS death rate rising fast: WHO

Published April 26, 2003

GENEVA, April 25: The recorded death rate from SARS has risen sharply in recent weeks, UN health officials said on Friday, adding though that there could be statistical rather than medical reasons for

this and the chances of eradicating the disease remained good.

David Heymann, executive director of communicable diseases at the World Health Organisation (WHO), said the mortality rate from Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) had risen from around four percent of known cases to “five to six percent” now.

But he said there was no known clinical reason for this.

The rise, he suggested, could be attributed to the different state of the epidemic in various locations as well as different statistical yardsticks used by national authorities in reporting their SARS cases.

“Overall, we initially saw four percent. We are now seeing five to six percent,” Heymann told a press conference.

“This is normal as you get to understand the disease, and (it) does not in any way at this point indicate that there has been a mutation (of the SARS virus) to a more virulent form.”

In early stages of the pneumonia-like epidemic, those most at risk are health workers, infected from being in close proximity to someone with the disease.

In countries where the epidemic has progressed, as it has in Hong Kong and parts of China, it can spread to a wider population group, exposing people of different ages and health backgrounds.

Some of them could be more at risk from dying but others may recover quite easily and may not be included in the statistical catch.

This means there are many different colours in the overall picture, and the raw average may not reflect the true mortality rate, Heymann said.

“What we have is a group of different populations, of old age, of younger people, all of who are getting the disease and our case fatality rate is based on the average of that,” he told a press conference.—AFP