AS usual, the recent Karachi Literary Festival was a great occasion to catch up with old friends. This time, there was a large contingent of ex-diplomats and journalists around. The latter included several foreign correspondents of western publications. And these days, when hacks meet diplomats, the talk usually turns to Afghanistan.

The world over, there’s much speculation over what will happen when the bulk of foreign troops leave our war-torn neighbour. From the worst-case scenario (the Taliban back in Kabul) to the optimistic situation where the Taliban join a broad-based coalition of disparate ethnic groups, there are many possibilities to conjure with.

But talking to journalist friends reporting regularly on Afghanistan, and old foreign service friends who, until a few years ago, were involved in advising on the situation there, I found almost unanimous pessimism. Apart from the adverse fallout of Nato’s departure on Afghanistan, my friends were very concerned with what 2014, the year of the American pullout, will bring for Pakistan.

And with good reason. When politicians and TV talking heads were hysterically demanding an immediate American withdrawal, I had suggested in several columns that we should be careful of what we wish for. So here we are, finally about to get what we had so vociferously demanded, and not liking what we see.

For starters, let’s count the economic cost of the looming pullout: currently, coalition forces and the foreign NGO community employ tens of thousands of Afghans at excellent salaries, at least by local standards. Landlords have rented houses in Kabul to foreigners at exorbitant prices. The nascent service sector has prospered due to the presence of the large overseas community. From transporters to taxi drivers to security guards, tens of thousands are dependent on the dollars spent by resident and visiting Americans and Europeans.

Now, the goose that has been laying these golden eggs is about to fly off, leaving many thousands unemployed. The Afghan economy is too small to absorb all those who are about to lose their source of income. Upscale restaurants will shut down without the business their foreign customers brought them, as will beauty salons. Wealthy Afghans have already begun transferring their wealth abroad, a trend that will only build up over the next year. Chances are that they will leave before the Americans do.

And it’s not just the Afghans who will be the losers: thousands of Pakistanis have found gainful employment in Afghanistan, whether in the construction industry or as executives in a wide range of businesses. Pakistani cement factories have been exporting thousands of tons of their product to Afghanistan, and our truckers have been hauling thousands of containers full of Nato and US supplies. All this business will evaporate by the end of 2014.

So what will happen to all the Afghans who will no longer be able to support their families? No prizes for guessing many will head for Pakistan. Already there are around 1.7 million registered refugees in camps in Khyber-Pakhtunistan, with many illegally in Karachi and Peshawar. Prepare for another influx of economic refugees. And this is without factoring in the strong possibility of renewed civil war next door.

Should the Taliban refuse to take part in a power-sharing arrangement that does not allow them a major role, the results can be violent and disastrous. A resumption of the civil war between them and the Northern Alliance is not farfetched. This scenario will send hundreds of thousands pouring across the border into neighbouring Iran and Pakistan, just as the earlier civil war did.

The difference is that this time, there probably won’t be a major international humanitarian effort to provide them food and shelter. With a major recession still causing economic hardship in many Western countries, there is little appetite for yet another open-ended aid mission in this region.

And now that the anti-US brigade in the military and media are getting their wish of a pullout, will they tell us how to bridge the fiscal gap caused by an end to US aid? Even though one of the authors of the Kerry-Lugar Act is now the US secretary of state, the reality is that Pakistan is not a country that’s easy to sell to most American legislators. Widely regarded as an unreliable ally, Pakistan cannot expect preferential treatment due to its geopolitical location: when tenants move out of rented real estate, they seldom feel the need to continue sending monthly cheques.

Even worse than the economic fallout are the security implications: should the Taliban tighten their grip on the areas bordering Fata – the most probable outcome – their ethnic cousins and ideological clones in Pakistan will be energised. The moral boost the perceived victory over the Americans will give the jihadi movement will be felt across Pakistan.

With the Americans gone, there will be little to stop Afghan Taliban crossing the border to help their Pakistani allies, thereby returning the favour done them by the Pakistani militant groups now fighting in Afghanistan. The Afghan National Army will do as little to stop this cross-border movement as our army has done to halt the Haqqani group from carrying out attacks next door.

For years, we have been listening to conspiracy theories about the real reasons for the American presence in Afghanistan: it was all about controlling Afghan resources, went one; the Americans needed a base to take out our nukes went another. There are several other such boneheaded theories around, but you get the idea. The reality is that the vast majority of Americans are sick and tired of the war in Afghanistan, and will want nothing more to do with the region for years to come.

In a little more than a year, we will be left moaning and groaning about the perfidious Americans who have left us with a big mess next door. These complaints will echo what our military and media said in the early nineties when the Americans left after the Soviets pulled out of Afghanistan. Once again, to repeat the old army line, “The Americans will dump Pakistan like a used condom”. To repeat, we should be careful of what we wish for.