THE Supreme Court, while ordering door-to-door voter verification and fresh delimitations, announced that breaking the cycle of perpetual violence in Karachi was only possible through empowering its residents to elect credible leaders in ethnically depolarised constituencies.
This is generally being seen as a biting indictment of the MQM and its political tactics of the last 25 years.
However, looking at the existing delimitations, ethnic mix and political realities, one does wonder what the Election Commission of Pakistan (ECP) could possibly do to maintain some semblance of a legal exercise while carrying out fresh delimitation that would change Karachi’s future electoral outcome.
In a recent meeting with the chief election commissioner, political parties stuck to their stated positions. The ECP later announced that it would complete door-to-door voters’ verifications by the end of February.
Even after a change of name and establishing a presence in Punjab, the MQM continues to draw much of its support from the Urdu-speaking population of Karachi. While the Jamaat-i-Islami continues to struggle in the metropolis, other political rivals appear to have surrendered, ensuring the MQM’s uninterrupted share in government during the last 15 years.
Earlier this year Karachi was once more subdivided into five districts, while as per the 2002 delimitation the city has 20 National Assembly seats. According to the 1998 census, the population of Karachi’s District East stood at 2.7 million, Central 2.3 million, West 2.1 million, South 1.8 million and Malir a mere 981,412.
Literacy in District West and Malir was estimated around 50 per cent against two-thirds in the rest of Karachi. Also, the population growth rate at more than four per cent per annum in Malir and District West remains much higher than the rest of Karachi. Malir has also witnessed rapid urbanisation with fresh societies constantly eating in to age-old villages.
Chances are that fresh delimitation would have minimal effect over the results of the next general elections in Karachi. Analysis of previous elections suggests that the results would depend upon formulation of poll strategies by the MQM, PPP and other political parties and the lurking Taliban threat to the electoral process.
Any decision by the MQM and PPP to form an electoral alliance could spell outright disaster for the rest. However a free for all environment could spring surprises with Jamaat and PTI offering some challenge. But with 74 per cent and 61 per cent Urdu-speaking populations respectively, MQM may still sail through the 10 constituencies in districts Central and East with relative ease.
Fresh delimitations shall cram four constituencies in District South into much smaller areas. A large chunk of voters along Sharea Faisal, Lines Area and Numaish would be lost to District East, leaving NA-251 grappling for voters out of NA-249 or NA-250.
In 2008, the MQM and PPP fiercely contested NA-250, where the winning margin of MQM’s Khushbakht Shujaat was less than 5.5 per cent. The PPP might be hoping for an upset through better tactics. However, 1,200 families shifted from Preedy Street during 2009 to Mehmoodabad and later some 4,800 families from other parts by the MQM could tip the balance.
While the PPP left much to be desired in this regard, the MQM came out as the champion of minorities in Pakistan, establishing its secular credentials. That could help MQM’s candidate in NA-249 in areas like Ramswami, Saddar and adjoining localities with substantial Hindu, Christian and other minority populations in a closely contested election.
NA-248, Lyari, once a PPP stronghold, also appears to be vulnerable. According to the 1998 census Baloch- and Sindhi-speakers constituted 46 per cent within the precincts of this constituency. Urdu-, Punjabi- and Pashto-speaking people together constituted 29 per cent, leaving 26 per cent ‘others’, the others being Memon, Kutchi- and Gujarati-speaking voters.
Parts of Lyari falling within NA-248 still remain under firm control of the Peoples Amn Committee (PAC). According to insiders Nawaz Sharif has been trying to lure PAC leader Sardar Uzair Baloch. If PPP looses PAC support or the Kutchi vote, allowing a three-way contest, it may end up losing one of its historically safe seats.
More than half of the people living within NA-257, one of the two constituencies stretching across Malir, were Urdu-speaking.
But once NA-257 and NA-258 are limited to District Malir, there shall be a change in their population-mix percentages.
However, due to massive urbanisation MQM may still be able to maintain its control over NA-257.
According to the 1998 census, half of people living in NA-258 were Sindhi- and Balochi-speaking. Even with fresh delimitations and some change in demography, NA-258 appears to be a safe seat for the PPP.
The largest working-class migrant population in Karachi lives in District West. But according to the 1998 census 40 per cent of people living in this district were Urdu-speaking and 25 per cent Pakhtun.
Yet half of the people living in the precincts of NA-239 were migrants from Punjab or Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. In 2002 this seat was captured by the MMA, but due to boycott by the religious parties PPP’s Qadir Patel won that seat during the last elections.
The rest of the seats were taken by the MQM. NA-239 could see a close contest in the next elections and even some unusual electoral alliances.
One must recognise that General Ziaul Haq destroyed whatever little ideological politics existed in the country. Riddled with nepotism, political parties have since transformed into mere fiefdoms serving the needs of their leaders and their clans. Once committed to ideologies, political workers are routinely seen trying to scavenge for the titbits.
The perception that the social or political landscape of a fragmented Karachi could be influenced through administrative measures is wrong. Any reduction in violence or crime will only come through genuine and perceptible struggle by political parties for the people’s rights.