APROPOS of the news item ‘Quadrilateral summit put off’ (Sept 28) is not good news for Pakistan. There was speculation in a section of our media that the visit may not materialise.
The Foreign Office has released the contents of the letter written by Mr Putin to Mr Zardari saying: “I am confident that in future we shall be able to find opportunities for arranging our personal meeting. We shall always be happy to receive you in Russia”.
The contents are not encouraging.
Different interpretations are being made: rescheduling, postponement, cancellation and deferment.
Whatever terminology we use, it is a big setback for Pakistan. However, a western media source says the Russian president decided to put off the visit since Pakistan refused to award a lucrative contract to Gazprom to build a gas pipeline from Iran to Pakistan.
Gazprom had been eager to construct the pipeline from the time the original plan included piping gas to India from Iran via Pakistan.
In fact, Russia wants a proper role into the region to have easy access to Central Asian states and this cannot be achieved without active support of Pakistan and good relations between India and Pakistan.
The logic of the process of regroupings in world politics is forcing Russia to revisit regions where its policies have become outdated after the invasion of Afghanistan by the Soviet Union.
South Asia figures prominently among such regions. It is said in the corridors of power in both India and Pakistan that Russia’s sole purpose of engaging in the region is the stabilisation of relations in South Asia, a matter which will be of pressing urgency after the completion of the International Security Assistance Force (Isaf) mission to Afghanistan.
The traditionally fractious relationship between India and Pakistan, and the ability of the two sides to put things onto an even keel is of inestimable significance for bringing peace to the region.
We must revisit our foreign policy and stop reliance on the US that is planning to leave Afghanistan in 2014. We must have regional block and Russia would like to lead because it wants to minimise role of the US after 2014 and become main power broker in South Asia. This is also a golden opportunity to mend and improve our relations with Russia.
Gen Kayani will visit Russia according to the programme in the first week of October but it cannot substitute the visit by head of state.
M.A. BUTTKarachi
Putin not coming
THE postponement of the Russian president’s visit to Pakistan is bad news for all those who considered this visit as a major drive in finding a regional solution to the Afghan problem.
This visit, with the trilateral meeting between Pakistan, Russia and Afghanistan, was being seen as an important ‘game changer event’ in the context of the ‘new great game’ being played by various internal and external stakeholders in Afghanistan.
For retaining ground troops in Afghanistan in a post-2014 scenario, the US interest is focused on seeking and securing Soviet-era military bases in Afghanistan. The US has also not disclosed or revealed the likely number of troops it is to leave behind after the troop withdrawal in 2014.
The uncertain and unpredictable political situation in Afghanistan may necessitate the presence of a far greater number of foreign troops than what the US plans and the world perceives.
Yet whatever be the number of troops, the transit routes that will ferry supplies for these troops will be under the control of Russia or Pakistan.
This means a lot to the US, and any efforts on the part of Russia and Pakistan to coordinate their approach and push forward any alternative regional security plans will be viewed with suspicion by the US which will consider its interests being challenged.
Russia is perceived to lead a regional strategy (an alternative strategy) which includes developing comprehensive partnerships with neighbouring states of Afghanistan, as well as Central Asian states, in preparation of the post-2014 scenario in Afghanistan.
Already Russia and Tajikistan have agreed on the terms of the continued presence of Russia’s 201 Motorised Division for another 30 years in Tajikistan.
The US is also hoping to secure basing facilities in Tajikistan. To do this, US Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton is due to visit Dushanbe in the third week of October.
A visit also by Putin to Dushanbe in the October is an indicator of the importance the world powers are now associating to neighbouring countries of Afghanistan as the date of a drawdown of foreign troops from Afghanistan nears.
Uzbekistan is the other valuable stake holder in the regional solution which has become an important logistics hub for International Security Forces-Afghanistan (Isaf). Seventy-five per cent of all supplies for Isaf transported by ground now cross the Uzbek border.
If in future there ever is a shutdown of a supply route from Pakistan, the significance of Uzbekistan as a substitute to sustain any foreign troops being kept in the bases in Afghanistan cannot be overruled.
Mr Putin’s visit to Pakistan was being seen as the indicator of the emerging geopolitical reality that Russia and Pakistan have finally realised that they have a commonality of interests in the post-2014 Afghanistan.
Clearly, the postponement of Mr Putin’s visit to Pakistan is a great setback for all those who wanted to see Russia leading the regional solution to the Afghan problem. This unfortunately has now been put on hold.
It is hoped that the visit will eventually take place to show, besides anything else, that Russia and Pakistan are eager to put behind them their past indifference toward each other and are showing interest in jointly approaching the issues of terrorism and regional security.
M. ALI EHSAN Karachi