FEAR prevails that the current drought, after badly affecting Kharif crops, would also take down the next Rabi season — causing severe shortages of agricultural produce.
The most problematic would be cotton sowing in first three months of 2013, when dams would be nearly empty or half full with almost non-existing rains. It is a nightmarish scenario.
Though the water watchers are still hoping, wishing and praying that August-end and early September may produce heavy rains in the catchments areas, which it historically does sometimes, the current weather pattern and rivers’ behaviour do not leave any room for optimism.
Temperatures have fallen in the northern areas, and all rivers’ inflows have dropped by 30 to 40 per cent as compared to last year and even more by historical averages for this time of the year.
Mother Nature has not only delayed the monsoon showers but has reduced them by a massive 30 per cent, according to the latest forecasts.
According to last ten years data, all reservoirs (Tarbella, Mangla and Chashma) normally have around 10 million acre feet (MAF) of water by mid-August.
On August 14 this year, they had 6.3maf — a straight loss of huge 3.4maf.
Similarly, rivers have experienced reduction in their inflows as compared to last year and 10-year average. On the same day, Indus River was flowing at 146,3000 cusecs against last years 221,500 cusecs, defeating the historical average 257,500 cusecs.
Similarly, River Jhelum has fallen to a paltry 26,800 cusecs against an average of 40,200 cusecs. Chenab has dropped to 71,900 cusecs against average of 86,000 cusecs and River Kabul produced only 33,600 cusecs against average 61,800 cusecs. This is the kind of fall in rivers’ flow.
Because of these flows, dams have also fallen far behind their planned filling and historical averages. Tarbella Dam, which was supposed to have touched a level of 1,546 feet — only four feet below its optimum level — is still teetering 1,493 feet.
Historically speaking, it should have attained the level of 1,531 feet. Now the fear is that the dam would not be filled this year.
Should that happen, it would only be second time in dam’s history that otherwise gets filled every year, being glacier-fed. Since its commissioning in 1976, it was not filled only in 2004.
The Mangla Dam, which has been missing filling three out of every ten years when it was not raised, has now been raised by 40 feet — making it the biggest storage in the country.
The fear is that it might not even touch the previous level of 1,202 feet, leave alone 1,240 feet. It is stuck at 1,166.80 feet. It was at a level of 1,200 feet last year, and historical average is 1,197 feet.
The current strategy of the Punjab is also keeping the dams’ level low. It is now frantically trying, with some measure of justification, to save standing cotton and rice crops, rather than storing for Rabi season.
Both these crops are water stressed and need a constant supply of water. So, the official philosophy is save one bird in hand, rather than two in the bush. Because of this strategy, the Tarbella Dam is now actually receding rather than filling.
The outflows are more than inflows, taking the level down.
As a result of current water flows and strategy, the country, unless some unforeseen help comes from the skies, would start next Rabi season with half-filled dams and rivers producing next to nothing. Most probably, the dam would be emptied in an effort to facilitate wheat sowing during October and November.
Because, at that stage, the strategy would be to let farmers sow wheat, and wait for Mother Nature to provide some showers. Both, second and third watering of wheat would be under severe pressure and there would virtually be no water for cotton sowing during February and March.
Both dams, when filled to their capacity during Kharif, normally hit dead level by early or mid-March. This year, it may happen in February because of low storage.
Less water would also mean less hydro generation of electricity and more dependence on highly-expensive thermal power — generating further fiscal pressure on hapless consumers and precious foreign exchange.
The point to ponder is that global change in traditional weather pattern, which scientists have been warning of for decades, has now started unfolding itself with all ferocity and furry.
They need to be studied and results be made part of planning to mitigate, if not eliminate, its effects.