LAHORE, July 18: Mangla Dam whose conservation level has been increased may not be filled because of the delayed and less monsoon rains in the country so far.
Experts also doubt the filling of the glacier-melt Tarbela Dam. But meteorologists expect it to be filled by the end of the monsoon season because of glacier melt and rains to be generated by westerly wave over its catchments.
The maximum conservation level of Mangla Dam has been increased from the previous 1,202ft to 1,242ft. But its level on Wednesday was just 1,143ft, indicating that only torrential rain can fill it up.
Similarly, the level of Tarbela Dam was 1,457ft as against the maximum conservation level of 1,550ft.
Temperatures have started rising in most parts of the country because of dry weather in the last two days, creating worst kind of mugginess in association with weak monsoon current.
The maximum temperature in Lahore went up to 42 degrees Celsius on Wednesday. The heat index was much more because of 55 per cent humidity in the morning and 39 per cent in the evening.
A windstorm late in the night however broke the two-day heat spell, providing relief to people. The wind from the north-west direction was cool and soothing.
The country had its first round of monsoon rains only last week. The season starts from July 1, and there were no pre-monsoon rains after June 15 either. Temperatures remained high in June and in the first 10 days of July because of dry weather, affecting human life and even crops a great deal.
The Pakistan Meteorological Department had on June 13 forecast slightly above normal total monsoon rainfall in the country. But the graph has so far been on the lower side.
PMD Director-General Arif Mahmood links low rains to weak monsoon current. There has been 30 per cent less rains even in the north-west India, he says.
But he hopes there will be some good spells of rain before the culmination of the season in September. But, still, he fears that Mangla Dam may not be filled.
Weather experts have little hopes of widespread rains in the remaining 13 days of the current month. And the PMD’s earlier indication that El Nino (which is likely to develop in August) will generally have a negative impact on Pakistan summer monsoon is also not a good news.
The only hopes are the westerly waves that enter Pakistan from Afghanistan. The PMD expects that they will continue affecting northern half of Pakistan and its interactions with monsoon current may produce downpours in parts of the country at times.
A fresh wave over Afghanistan is likely to enter Pakistan around Friday.