WHEN Egyptians protested in Tahrir Square in January last year, Hosni Mubarak was the enemy while the army commanded broad respect.
The tables have turned and respect is fast eroding as the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces (Scaf) continues to consolidate its power, most recently through its dissolution of the newly elected parliament and a military charter broadening its powers.
Just as Egypt is venturing into a semblance of democracy, the military appears to be curtailing the democratic freedoms Egyptians have fought for over the past 16 months. The Muslim Brotherhood, winning a majority in parliament four months ago, lost its power in parliament when the courts ruled that the elections were unconstitutional effectively dissolving parliament.
The court also ruled that Ahmed Shafik, a relic of the Mubarak regime and favourable to the military’s interests, was eligible to run in Egypt’s elections against Muslim Brotherhood rival, Mohamed Morsi. Though both outcomes suspiciously favour the military, the ruling by the courts was constitutional.
“I think it’s a huge mistake to view the constitutional court’s ruling as something that has been orchestrated by the military.
The military is a beneficiary of it but the ruling itself is legitimate and a reasonable one. I don’t know of a single jurist in Egypt who did not expect this ruling,” said Nezar AlSayyad, chair of the Centre for Middle Eastern Studies at UC Berkeley.
The Muslim Brotherhood struck a deal with the military last year that instituted an amendment allowing two-thirds of parliament seats to be contested by party candidates and one-third by independents. Under pressure from the Muslim Brotherhood the military allowed Muslim Brotherhood, candidates to run as independents enabling them to claim 47 per cent of the seats in parliament. The courts ruled that candidates with party affiliations could not run as independents as had been the case with the Muslim Brotherhood thus declaring the parliamentary elections unconstitutional.
They also rightly ruled that the Political Isolation Law could not discriminate against a certain individual. The law stripped Mubarak appointees and people that had served under his government in the past 10 years of their political rights. This would have discriminated against thousands of people in Egypt and was also declared unconstitutional.
Though the dissolution of parliament and court rulings were constitutional, it has helped to expedite the military’s consolidation of power. It is evident from its oscillating positions since the revolution took place, that the military is more interested in preserving its economic interests than shaping the future country — not surprising given that it controls about 20 per cent of the economy. The military’s volatility has demonstrated that the powerful institution is not necessarily comprised of experienced politicians.
The Muslim Brotherhood candidate, Mohamed Morsi, who won the run-off presidential elections will not be able to accomplish much when he assumes the presidency, given the recent actions by Scaf. Tensions will continue to escalate between the Muslim Brotherhood and Scaf in the coming weeks. Its lawmakers plan to go to parliament in spite of the military and riot police that have been stationed there to keep them out.
In an effort to maintain its power and economic interests, Scaf issued a new charter last week which gave it control of all laws, the national budget, the power to declare war, and immunity from any parliamentary or presidential scrutiny. It doesn’t take a crystal ball to see that Egypt is heading towards a military dictatorship.
Scaf has assumed nearly full control over all branches of state. The judiciary is leaning towards military interests by dismissing parliament albeit constitutionally and the minister of justice has imposed elements of martial law giving Scaf broad authority to arrest and detain civilians.
The military has also become the legislative authority in the country with the power to issue legislation in the absence of the parliament dissolved recently. It has ensured that it will control the drafting of Egypt’s new constitution by granting itself the power to veto any clauses that it does not favour and even has the authority to select the 100-member body that will draft it.
Scaf is toying with the executive branch by delaying the announcement of winning presidential candidate Mohamed Morsi infuriating Muslim Brotherhood members. Most significantly, it has finalised its independence from any executive authority by instituting an amendment that removes the president’s role as commander-in-chief effectively making Scaf a fourth branch of state, constitutionally separate from the legislative, executive and judiciary but in control of all four.
The military has made a mockery of democracy since the revolution. In March 2011, the nation voted on a referendum on nine amendments to the constitution after which the military issued its own constitutional declaration of 60 articles. The parliamentary elections that took place last year have been ignored by the recent dissolution of the assembly. Now for a third time the Egyptians have gone to the polls, this time to elect a president, whose powers have been stripped by Scaf before he has even assumed power.
If things continue this way Egypt will find itself worse off than before — stuck with a military-controlled state with a compliant figurehead at the helm. The Egyptians’ only hope is to take to the streets in mass protests. They will have to do it in large numbers and with a sense of urgency, while the momentum of the revolution remains, otherwise it may take another three decades, or longer, before it happens again.
The writer is a business editor and economist based in San Francisco