KARACHI, May 31: Analysts and economists were pouring over the figures presented in the Economic Survey 2011-12 till late in the evening.

Yet initial observations by some brought out interesting facts to light.

Nauman Khan, analyst at Topline Securities, pointed out that the Survey 2011-12 reported GDP growth at 3.7pc below the envisioned target of 4.2pc.

It also compared unfavourably with last 10-years average GDP growth of 4.8pc and last 65 years GDP growth of 5.0pc. Furthermore, last five years average GDP growth stood at 3.04pc which was the lowest five-yearly average economic growth in the history of the country.

The survey was also noted to have adjusted previous two years (FY10-11) growth rate to 3.1pc and 3.0pc from 3.8pc and 2.4pc. Cumulatively, Pakistan's four-year (FY09-12) average GDP growth in the current government's tenure stood at 2.9pc as against 6.6pc recorded in preceding five years (FY04-08).

In the corresponding period (FY08-12), regional peers, namely India, Sri Lanka and Bangladesh showed a growth of 7.8pc, 6.8pc and 6.1pc, respectively, while developing market growth stood at 7.9pc.

The survey put 10MFY12 fiscal deficit at 5pc which was already above full year revised target of 4.7pc of the GDP.

Analysts, however, thought that the actual deficit could balloon to 6.5pc (excluding electricity arrear payments). With electricity arrears it could reach 8.3pc. Though the government was expecting to come close to its announced tax target, higher expenditure due to increased subsidy would stand out as the culprit.

Furthermore, analysts estimated that 90pc of escalating deficit would be financed through domestic sources, which would put excruciating pressure on the domestic liquidity and make it difficult to keep down the interest rates, going forward.