THOUGH Saudi Arabia has pushed for a Gulf Cooperation Council ‘union’ at a recent summit in Riyadh, it is difficult to foresee such a development in the near future. The motivation for greater GCC integration appears to be two-fold; create a regional counterweight against trans-Gulf non-Arab power Iran and keep a check on demands for change within the Gulf sheikhdoms. The six-nation pro-western bloc was established in 1981 in the wake of 1979’s Islamic Revolution in Iran; a consistent fear amongst the monarchies since then has been the emboldening of their own Shia populations. While there have been frequent calls for greater integration, little of substance has been achieved. For example plans for a common currency have not materialised as the UAE and Oman are not interested. Also, the other five members fear a union would translate into Saudi political and economic hegemony and are wary of surrendering their independent identities to Riyadh. A preview of Saudi intentions was witnessed last year when a Saudi-led GCC military force rumbled into Bahrain to help crush a pro-democracy uprising.

Regional integration is positive if based on good intentions. However, in this case opting for a union based on narrow, questionable goals is not advisable. For one, there is a lack of consensus within the GCC states on how and where to proceed. Rather than antagonise one another, the Gulf states — both the Arabs and the Iranians — should work for greater regional harmony and cooperation. The Gulf monarchs should also realise that sooner or later they will have to open up their societies and discard their autocratic style of governance to allow their people to freely express themselves. The Gulf may not be able to withstand the winds of change blowing across the Arab world for much longer.