UNITED NATIONS Secretary General Ban Ki-moon has made a grim prediction. He says Syria is on the road to “full-scale civil war”. Former chief of the global body and the UN-Arab League envoy Kofi Annan has echoed Mr Ban’s sentiments as violence continues to rage in the Levant, despite the UN-sponsored truce. In comments reported on Tuesday Ban Ki-moon criticised the “brutality” of Bashar al-Assad’s regime, while the UN head noted that attacks by opposition groups have also increased. Recent parliamentary elections — boycotted by the opposition and labelled a farce by many — were held amidst reports of shelling and gunfire by Syrian troops, though state media hailed the polls as a milestone. Clashes have continued despite the presence of UN observers in Syria.

The Annan plan was a ray of hope, but hope is fading fast as government forces continue their onslaught against civilians while rebel groups also refuse to lay down arms. The possibility of chaos in Syria is very real. Already much blood has flowed; according to UN figures over 9,000 people have lost their lives. It is difficult to say how much longer the Assad regime can continue to cling to power and crush dissent. Yet what is reasonably clear is that if the regime falls in a chaotic manner, the situation will get extremely messy. The Syrian opposition is disunited and factional while the various armed groups, including the rebel Free Syrian Army, have been accused of human rights violations. There is also evidence that jihadis are making their way to Syria to help bring down the Assad government, with Al Qaeda leaders having voiced support for the revolt. In such a scenario the only option is for a negotiated, orderly transition. To prevent a chaotic descent into civil war, Mr Assad must adhere to the Annan plan, order his troops to stand down and let people express themselves peacefully. The rebels must also refrain from hostilities while foreign countries must stop their support for armed opposition groups in the hopes of engineering regime change. Once violence from all sides has subsided, an attempt can be made for a transition to democracy.