The PML-N is again on the warpath against its sworn enemy, the PPP. Goaded by the constant taunts of ‘friendly opposition’ by its detractors in the motley opposition camp, the PML-N seized on the Prime Minister Yousuf Raza Gilani's conviction by the Supreme Court for contempt last week as a godsend to wash the stigma. Its leadership has decided to hold a long march to deseat Gilani who has flatly rejected the demand from many sides to step down on “moral grounds”, to reclaim its lead role in the opposition to the PPP-led coalition government in a crucial election year.

But the environment doesn't look so favourable to the PML-N as it was in March 2009 when it held its first long march successfully. Then the party was brimming with confidence, ruling the province which PPP's founder and hanged prime minister Zufikar Ali Bhutto had called ‘the bastion of power'. Led by the party supremo, the march was just 70 kilometres out of Lahore, and 300 kilometres short of its destination, Islamabad, when its objective of restoration of superior judiciary was achieved - with the army reportedly working behind the scene.

Today, however, the party is in difficulties, if not in crisis. Still the leadership, with eyes on the next general elections, found the crisis of a convicted prime minister opportune to re-establish its image of a potent force in the national politics.

This was the agenda discussed at the PML-N's Central Executive Committee meeting last Monday. There, although not unanimously, the leadership decided to go full throttle in a campaign against the ruling PPP. Some saner elements in the PML-N, including Mian Nawaz Sharif and its leader of the house in the Senate, Ishaq Dar, were said to be against an out-and-out confrontation with the PPP.

It is understood that they cautioned that even a little miscalculation could take things out of the party's hands and adversely affect its prospects in the end. So, they wanted the protest and demonstrations for the implementation of the court's judgment should be planned very carefully.

However, party hawks like Khawaja Asif, Khawaja Saad Rafique and Chaudhry Nisar Ali Khan, supported by Shahbaz Sharif, prevailed with their calls for agitation.

After his April 26 conviction for contempt, the PML-N argues, Mr Gilani ceased to be lawful chief executive of the country and should be removed from office.

But the question still haunts the PML-N whether it will be a politically correct move to make? After all the Supreme Court is yet to come out with its detailed judgment which would actually determine true nature of the charges under which the seven-member bench had slapped a symbolic punishment of 30+ seconds on the prime minister.

Secondly, the country's top legal experts are divided equally over the real import of the judgment. Those who see it through the moral eyeglass say Prime Minister Yousuf Raza Gilani has no option but to resign. Others, including Mr Gilani's defence counsel Senator Aitzaz Ahsan, say the constitution has clearly laid down the process of removal of the sitting prime minister once he has been convicted by the court. Where the PML-N would be standing if, tomorrow, the Supreme Court in its detailed judgment again took a middle ground and didn't specifically settle the question of his disqualification, leaving it to the speaker of the National Assembly and election commission?

Thirdly, the PPP and its coalition partners have endorsed the convict's right to appeal, which again leaves the issue open even if the result is presumed to be known. In legal terms an appeal is considered continuation of the original trial.

“We know it is a risky move, but you tell what other options the party has left at the moment,” a senior PML-N leader said, while talking to Dawn.

Rejecting the general perception that the fear of Imran Khan's Pakistan Tehrik-i-Insaf forced the PML-N to jump the gun, he said it was an election year and the party genuinely thought it wise to build up public pressure on the government of the day. “Why you people forget that politics is the art of the possible,” he opined.

After 2008 general elections, the PML-N decided to sit with the PPP in government on condition that Mr Zardari would reinstate the judges of the Supreme Court within a month and made a written agreement to this effect. Since restoration of the judiciary did not suit him then, Mr Zardari just refused to honour the written document.

“At the moment, the majority in the PML-N believes confrontation with the ruling PPP is to its advantage. So we are going ahead with it,” said the leader, who is in the inner circle of the party.

According to another PML-N leader, “the PPP will have to take our protests seriously” because the 20th Constitution Amendment makes consensus mandatory between the prime minister and leader of the opposition on the selection of Chief Election Commissioner and setting up a caretaker government before the next general elections.

Already, the PML-N refuses to accept Mr Gilani and his cabinet as lawful and has declined to participant in any official business with the sitting government.

“Yes, we know our stand can end up in a stalemate on the two counts and the working of the parliament. It's not just us but the ruling PPP should also realise the gravity of the impending crisis,” asserted the PML-N leader.

On the face of it, the PML-N has taken the last stand against the government. Only time would tell whether the final outcome proves to its advantage or disadvantage.

khawar.ghumman@gmail.com