TEL AVIV: Less than two months before Israel’s general election, dovish opposition leader Amram Mitzna is battling to convince voters he can mount a serious challenge to right-wing Prime Minister Ariel Sharon.
Opinion polls predict Sharon and his rightist Likud party will easily sweep aside Mitzna and his centre-left Labour Party despite economic hardships and a wave of suicide bombings in a more than two-year-old conflict with the Palestinians.
Mitzna is likely to start work on his campaign in earnest this week. Sharon looks invincible, but political analysts say the vote could be closer than expected and that Mitzna can claim success if he prevents a debacle for Labour.
Election experts say his best hope is to launch a two-prong attack on Sharon over economy and security matters, play up his credentials as an ex-general, tap a large floating vote and move closer to the centre from the left, where he is out on a limb.
“He has got to find a way to crack Sharon’s ‘Teflon’ armour and persuade the public that he should be blamed,” political analyst Joseph Alpher said.
“Mitzna might yet do it (win)...but I think the real question is what his realistic goal should be,” he said.
“If he can just close the gap on Sharon, it would be a success. The smaller the right’s majority is, the better his ability will be to negotiate joining a coalition government from a position of strength — if he opts to join the government. And he could prevent the far right from entering the coalition.”
Mitzna’s task is so difficult that many election experts suggest he should be setting his sights on simply ensuring Labour gains a handful of mandates, enough to enable him to mount a sterner challenge in the next election.
Labour has 25 seats in the Knesset, or parliament, compared to Likud’s 19, but opinion polls suggest Likud will win 40 mandates and Labour only 20 in the January 28 election. Mitzna says he wants to win at least 30 seats.
CHOOSING TACTICS: Mitzna, 57, must now decide how to attack Sharon, who took office in March 2001 after crushing Labour’s then-prime minister, Ehud Barak, on a pledge to improve Israelis’ security.
Political experts say there are several areas where Sharon, 74, might be vulnerable. Mitzna, who was elected Labour leader last month, has already signalled some of his intentions.
He has promised to start withdrawing troops immediately from the Gaza Strip, which Israel occupied in the 1967 Middle East war, and to dismantle Jewish settlements there if elected. A withdrawal from the West Bank would follow later.
He has also said he will hold negotiations with Palestinian President Yasser Arafat after, but not before, the election.
On both issues, he offers a radical alternative to Sharon who has ruled out political negotiations with his old enemy unless the Palestinian uprising for independence ends.
The settlements issue is widely regarded as a potential vote-winner, but overtures to Arafat are not.
SHIFT TO THE CENTRE?: Reuven Hazan, an election expert at Jerusalem’s Hebrew University, said Mitzna must focus on two fronts — the economy and the security.
Mitzna is also expected to play up his past as an army general and, in the words of late Labour Prime Minister Yitzhak Rabin, be “more Likud than Likud” on security issues.
A poll of Labour members last week showed a majority wanted him to move towards the political centre because the pendulum has swung to the right in the past two years as a result of the suicide bombings and other Palestinian attacks.
“I think at this point he is right in moving towards the centre but maybe it is already too late. Sharon has already occupied the centre ground by saying he would support the eventual creation of a Palestinian state,” Sandler said.
Mitzna will also be seeking votes from immigrants from the former Soviet Union, who make up almost a fifth of voters, and Arabs, who represent a slightly smaller share of the electorate.
But election experts say Mitzna is unlikely to break Sharon’s grip on the generally conservative former Soviet immigrants, who like his tough talk on security matters.
Arab voters are considered more likely to vote for Mitzna’s Labour Party than for Sharon’s Likud. But a change made in Israel’s electoral system could make their impact marginal.
In the last general election, Israelis could cast separate votes for prime minister and a party’s list of parliamentary candidates.
This time, there is no separate ballot for premier, and most Israeli Arabs are expected to vote for Arab parties to ensure their community is represented in parliament.
The leader of the party that wins the most votes is usually chosen by Israel’s president to form a government.
A more fruitful area of attack could be the poor and the about 40 per cent of undecided voters.
But Sharon looks impregnable on security issues, especially as US President George W. Bush is thought to favour the status quo as he seeks Arab support for possible war in Iraq.—Reuters