ISLAMABAD: Unusual weather conditions and low river flows have forced the Indus River System Authority (Irsa) to forecast water availability only for 70 days, with shortages estimated at up to 35 per cent for April and on an average 21 per cent till June 10.
A meeting of Irsa’s technical committee presided over by its Chief Engineer Yasmin Ahsan decided to meet again in the first week of June to work out water availability estimates for the remaining period of the coming Kharif season ending on October 1.
The water regulator’s advisory committee will meet on March 30 to finalise a water distribution plan for first 70 days of the season.
The availability of water required for sowing summer crops is so uncertain that Irsa chairman Syed Mazhar Ali Shah has appealed to farmers not to start sowing crop in haste and wait for improvement in river flows till April 15 when the situation is expected to stabilise.
He said the meteorological department was hopeful that temperatures would increase in Northern Areas next month, resulting in improvement in river flows by April 15. He said Irsa would try to ensure that Sindh received 25-30 cusecs of water at Guddu for early sowing.
Irsa also decided to release to provinces as much water as possible to meet their irrigation requirements for maximum crop sowing instead of building up storage level. Rice, sugarcane, cotton, maize, mung, mash, bajra and jowar are some of the key crops grown in the Kharif season.
It also decided to give priority to using available resources for irrigation instead of meeting Wapda’s requirements for power generation.
Irsa spokesman Khalid Idris Rana said that it was for the first time in Irsa’s history that water availability forecasts had been approved for such a short time, but added that it was also for the first time that weather pundits were uncertain about weather conditions. He, however, explained that Irsa usually prepared water availability estimates separately for early and late Kharif for better management of estimated water quantities according to irrigation requirements, but such schedules were announced at the start of the season.
He said the technical committee comprising provincial representatives decided with consensus to fix water availability estimates for April 1 to June 10 because of above-average water shortfall predicted at 21 per cent. He said the technical and advisory committees of Irsa would meet again in the first week of June for a clearer picture of water situation for the remaining season. He said the shortage was estimated at 30 to 35 per cent in April.He said on the basis of 21 per cent shortage estimated till June 10, the total water availability was estimated at 15.2 million acres feet. As such, tentative share for Punjab was worked out at 9 MAF, followed by 5.6 MAF for Sindh and 0.4MAM and 0.2 MAF for Balochistan and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, respectively. The shortages will be equally be shared by Punjab and Sindh.
He said that water shortage currently stood at about 50 per cent in areas up to Guddu but that would improve in next 8-10 days to 30 per cent because of discharges now starting at Taunsa barrage.
Replying to a question, he said provinces faced about 18 per cent water shortage during the current Rabi season till March 20.
TELEMETRY SYSTEM: Responding to a question, Chairman Mazhar Ali Shah said that Irsa and the World Bank had agreed to revive the telemetry system for automatic measurement of water flows. He said that 23 sites would be monitored for water regulation and measurement without human involvement through a satellite system.
He said Irsa, Wapda and provincial governments would jointly control the monitoring system for real time measurement of water flows. In the first phase, six sites will be equipped with the satellite-based monitoring system, including Chashma, Taunsa, Guddu, Garang, Marala and Rasul.
He said the previous telemetry system had failed because of human involvement.
It may be recalled that the Rs350 million telemetry system installed during Gen Musharraf’s government to remove misunderstanding among provinces was wrapped up soon after its completion because of technical problems faced in operations of software and computer system owing to fluctuations in power supply.