ISRAEL has its eyes set on Iran, while the US is exploring options and wants the world to believe that it would exhaust them all before it takes the unpopular military option.
Israel wants the world to believe that for it this is a zero-sum game. It is not a matter of why but when will it carry out military strikes to knock out Iranian nuclear installations. But can it and will it?
Iranian nuclear installations are widely dispersed. Unlike ‘two minutes over Iraq’, the action carried out by Israel to destroy the Iraqi nuclear reactor in 1982, neutralising and destroying Iranian nuclear installations will not be that easy.
Such an operation will warrant multiple sorties, spanning a period of seven to 10 days, flown from a distance of 1,000km (the distance between Tel Aviv and Tehran).
When the operation is to last for such an extended time period, the world is not likely to witness blown-out Iranian nuclear installations but an allout war between two foes bent upon following the course of mutually-assured destruction.
If nuclear weapons are not weapons of war but political weapons of deterrence which prevent wars, then the world is likely to be safer with a ‘nuclear Iran’ than a ‘non-nuclear’ one. If Israel fears “Iranian mullas’ hands on the red button”, then the Iranian people also fear a massive nuclear retaliation by Israel, and under such belief and circumstances, the only thing that can prevail is ‘guaranteed nuclear deterrence’.
Uranium enrichment in Iran is being carried out at Natnz, Arak and Bushehr, besides other well-dispersed locations. But it is the Iranian nuclear site at Fordov in Qom that pinches Israel the most. The site is inside a mountain sheltered by 260-foot-thick rock from all sides, making it impregnable and invulnerable to attack by conventional weapons.
Sanctions take time to effect. Complete diplomatic isolation of Iran is impossible. Russia and China have put their weight behind Iran.
An Indian delegation is visiting Tehran by the end of the month to give final shape to a ‘bartered trade agreement’ which will enable the two countries to swap oil for wheat and other commodities, thus outflanking economic sanctions.
The EU wants China to help it to solve Europe’s growing debt crisis by opening its markets to EU countries. China will not do that without EU countries lending their ears to China on how it thinks the Iranian problem should be resolved.
Above all, the presence of the presidents of Iran, Afghanistan and Pakistan in Islamabad at the regional platform sent a loud and clear message to the US and Israel that regional alliance is a great shield against external aggression and threat.
The world has many reasons to prevent rather than go to war with Iran. The American people do not wish to see another ‘war president’ running for elections in November. Oil prices shooting up to $200 a barrel only means further economic depression.
It is not knocking out nuclear sites in Iran but the consequences of doing so which will haunt the world for days to come.
Regional insecurity will translate into global insecurity and for that the blame will lie squarely on the shoulders of the US.
M. A. EHSANKarachi