A segment of the elite which sees growth and democracy not moving in rhythm in Pakistan was disappointed as the representative government survived yet another threatening patch in the battered history of democracy under the full glare of media spotlights over the past few weeks.

The sentiments were not uniform for all segments and regions, but uneasiness persists across the board in trade and industry over the unfolding political developments.

The stock brokers, realtors and traders were more depressed. The elected leadership of business community, however, expressed its commitment to democracy while expressingreservation over the quality of governance in the same breath.

As for the consensus over the economic path that best served business interests and also suits the country, there was an utter confusion.

Most businesses projected a myopic view or an unrealistic wish list. The think tank of big business—- Pakistan Business Council—- is, perhaps, the only trade body that has bothered to articulate its views as projected in its report titled, ‘Business Economic Agenda’, circulated in the relevant quarters and available on its website.

Many multinational executives abstained from taking any position and preferred to say all good things about everyone. They were cautious in airing their opinion on politics for they found it to be a tricky business.

“You will see the markets soaring the day the Gilani government is sent home. I expect the KSE index to gain at least 1000 points a month and dash through 15000 point limits within first half of 2012 under a direct (authoritarian) rule in the country,” an analyst working for a brokerage house in Karachi told Dawn.

“I am not quite sure why but my business associates and investors do not quite trust this government and are waiting for it to fall. The foreign investors are wary because they fear uncomfortable exit when they decide to pull out,” a corporate executive handling accounts of institutions and big investors informed this scribe from Lahore over phone.

“I know for a fact that big brokers persistently cross trade amongst themselves to service their clients without reporting their deals. It is a common knowledge that sum total of private trading volumes of individuals on a given day is many times more than the reported volume of trading at the KSE,” he said.

“If and when these big game makers decide to unload these deals in the market, both the volumes and the index will soar,” he argued.

“Investor is not shy of risk. He knows high gains follow high risks but he hates to enter a market that lacks transparency and where mobility of his capital is not ensured,” he explained the reluctance of foreign investors to invest in capital market despite attractive offerings.

“Numbers speak for themselves. The average GDP growth rate under political governments has been much lower than achieved under stable direct (authoritarian) rule in Pakistan,” he elaborated the thought behind the stance.

The corporate leaders dismissed anti-democratic characterisation of the business community. “We are not politicians to be articulate on political issues. But we have learned our lessons. Many of us now realise that relief we get under dictatorship does not last long,” said an eminent businessman of Karachi who champions civil causes and supports youth NGOs.

“I am for a stable democracy that delivers on the strength of the corporate sector and the civil society. We crave for good governance that we need to do what we are best at: business,” said Amin Hashwani, co-chairman India Pakistan and CEO Business Forum.

“The business community supports representative dispensation and the uneasiness that you noticed is because of multiple problems being faced by them such as law and order, fuel and power shortages, etc,” Tariq Saeed, a proponent of regional integration and former president Saarc Chamber of Commerce and Industry told this writer in Karachi over phone.

The debate on trade-off between democracy and growth is not peculiar to Pakistan. A decade back in 2002, Nobel laureate Joseph Stiglitz, in his paper, (’Participation and development: perspectives from the comprehensive development paradigm’ ) argued that consensus building, open dialogue and the promotion of an active civil society are keyingredients to long-term sustainable development.

“The beauty of democracy is in the fact that it is both an end and a means to develop a society. Even a best set of solutions imposed from above may fail to produce results because of people’s resistance to follow dictates. There is no linear path to development applicable to all societies,” said an economist.

“The economic success will materialise when the solutions are arrived through public debate, and the consensus programme is implemented under public oversight,” he added.

“I am in favour of dictatorship because only a dictator can implement reforms required in the country to move ahead. At this stage, we cannot afford the luxury of democracy that has proved to be too pricy for the country,” a tycoon from Karachi who is a great fan of General Musharraf and lovingly refers to him as ‘Chief Sahib’ told Dawn, seeking confidentiality.

The fact is that political elite has evolved consensus on the sharing of resources and authority among the federating units under the NFC award and the 18th Amendment. In spite of the friction between political parties, the mainstream parties have proved their undiluted commitment to constitutional democracy. Political culture is changing.

These consensus decisions in the realm of politics are laying the ground for evolving consensus on ways to solve economic issues facing the country.

And in the changing political culture, different trade bodies need to evolve an agreed minimum programme for economic development and initiate a national debate on the policy options to implement it.