AFTER 15 years in the wilderness, Imran Khan seems to have emerged as the brightest star on Pakistan's political horizon.
The massive crowds drawn by the Pakistan Tehrik-i-Insaf in Lahore and Karachi have encouraged punters to wager that the PTI could well emerge as a significant political force in the next elections. The momentum already unleashed is likely to gather pace.
However, for that momentum to be sustained, the slogan of change has to translate into a specific agenda and well-crafted implementation.
The next few months are, therefore, likely to be testing for Khan and his party. If the objective is merely to achieve electoral victory, get into government and enjoy the consequential power and glory while preserving the inequitable status quo, there is a reasonable probability of success.
However, if the slogan of change represents a vision and commitment to usher in a brighter tomorrow, Khan has to wrestle with difficult questions. Fundamental to this is an objective analysis of how the state of Pakistan got to this point of rottenness.
Khan has persistently decried corruption. Implicit in this thought process is the assumption that with the removal of corruption, the major obstacle to progress would disappear.
It may be useful for him to reflect upon the fact that corruption, however reprehensible, has not prevented other countries from making progress. The examples of India, Thailand, South Korea and China come to mind.
Then, has he ever analysed the sources of corruption in Pakistan rather than focusing merely on politicians' corrupt practices? Quite obviously, corruption follows the trail of public expenditure. Normally, the opportunity for corruption arises out of development expenditure and is linked to non-transparency in awarding contracts or deviation fromregulatory and procedural requirements.
Given the modest share of development expenditure in our total annual expenditure (currently around 15 per cent), the opportunity for corruption emanating from this source is limited.
Non-develo pmentexpenditure includes a large component of salaries and wages, and embedded in this category is the expenditure on defence.
There is hardly any public accountability or monitoring mechanism for this expenditure; it could well be the largest source of corruption.
Public knowledge about the French submarine deal and alleged kickbacks and commissions in other defence procurement deals reinforces this hypothesis. However, this aspect finds hardly any mention in Khan's tirade against corruption. The PTI leader recently declared his intention to make Pakistan an 'Islamic' welfare state. Does this mean a paradigm shift in the current profile of Pakistan functioning as a national security state? The two concepts are mutually exclusive.
The transformation of the country into a welfare state has a very significant implication in terms of the diversion of national resources from defence-related expenditures to the promotion of people's welfare. This, in turn, would require a reversal of the Indiacentric policy and abandonment of the warped ambition of exercising permanent influence in Afghanistan.
Is Khan prepared for such a bold initiative, or would he allow himself to remain hostage to those who have scrambled to his party? Does he realisethat there is no evidence that India has any intention to start a military adventure against Pakistan? While shedding the myth of India's aggressive designs against Pakistan would facilitate a reordering of national expenditure priorities, this would only represent a 'necessary' condition for economic revival. However, this policy shift has to be accompanied by the 'sufficient' condition of greater effort at resource mobilisation.
The current inequitable system of taxation needs drastic changes. This would imply a greater focus on taxing the rich elite, including imposing tax on agriculture-related income and wealth or capital value tax and RGST. Is Khan prepared to take on the landed aristocracy and the rentseeking business community? In the Karachi rally, he apologised to the people of Balochistan for the wrongs committed against them. Yet, he fell short of identifying the perpetrators of such wrongs. If Khan wishes to express compassion for the Baloch people, he needs to take a clear position on the role of our security apparatus in handling the socaHedinsurgencyin the country's largest province.
Finally, Khan must objectively analyse his oft-repeated recipe for making the country secure against the ravages of extremism. Such an exercise might perhaps help him to review the simplistic belief that the extremist and religious zealots would suddenly become peaceful and loyal citizens once American influence is withdrawn.
Surely the PTPs think tank and technocrat advisers (except Hameed Gul) must have pointed out to their leader the consequences of peace deals signed with the Taliban from time to time. Such deals have only increased the extremists' propensity towards physical and human destruction in Pakistan.
Currently, Imran Khan's self-imposed compulsion seems to be an attempt to be onthe right side of all such elements that have contributed in varying degrees to bring the country to its present stage: the military establishment, the business community, the feudal class, the bornagain democrats (mainly highranking retired military and civilian officers), 'elect-able' politicians and, last but not least, the India-US hate-mongers as represented by the religious right. He seems convinced that bonding with such diverse elements is likely to facilitate his electoralsuccess.
However, the fundamental question is whether the electoral battle could help him or the PTI emerge victorious in the declared commitment of bringing about a better future for the people of Pakistan.
Khan should have the confidence and the courage to believe that if the people of Pakistan trust his commitment and are prepared to give him the opportunity, he would have the power to overcome pressures from vested interests wedded to the preservation of the status quo.
If he behes this trust and falters in his commitment, it would be difficult for all the king's horses and all the king's men to put him together again.
The writer is the former chief executive of the Pa kista n Credit Rating Agency, Lahore.
javedmasud14@gmail.com