When people talk about the province of Balochistan, a few keywords strike automatically: tribal systems, feudals, conflict, insurgency, oil, minerals, and ultimately, “the great game”. While it contributes to 43 per cent of Pakistan’s land mass, its share in terms of population is only 5 per cent. The region is currently facing a fifth insurgent movement, which is more geographically widespread and ideologically infective than all previous ones. Those rebelling today are more educated, ideologically charged, aware of the treasures of the province, and not all of them align with presently positioned tribal leaders, who they feel have betrayed the people by filling in their own pockets.

If we try to discuss the cause of this insurgent effect, it brings up talk of a massive “great game” conspiracy, where many great nations have a role in the covert affairs of the province, the historical debate of the Khan of Kalat’s accession, along with many other views which may please Zaid Hamid amongst all of us. But if we talk about solutions, we somehow come to a halt, as we come up with ideas of “divine intervention”, military operations, or the disintegration of Pakistan.

The effectiveness of their insurgency, being a low-lying one, is startling. Most of their attacks can be termed surgical and have consisted of specific targets as opposed to public places targeting large gatherings. What is worrisome is the ideological sympathy from the average Baloch, who looks at the rebel leaders as a kind of representation.

The government’s approach towards the province over the years has largely been oppressive. Four previous insurgent attempts had been quelled largely with force. Tribal leaders who have held political or bureaucratic appointments, or had some form of government support, have cemented their own positions and used their power to their own benefit, foregoing development and the welfare of the people in general. While the current PPP government has tried to make mends, with efforts such as the “Aghaaz-e-Huqooq Balochistan”, the people in general feel detached from Pakistan.

That being said, a large scale rebellion may be suppressed in the absence of overt international support to the movement. However it would create a PR catastrophe with international media highlighting Pakistan’s ever-evident human rights dilemma, which already receives its fair share of criticism. While the Balochistan conflict is one of Pakistan’s many major issues, it can also be the opportunity to display one of Pakistan’s greatest reforms. Just recently, Senator Lashkari Raisani made an announcement claiming he was contacted by Baloch insurgents saying that they appeared prepared to join national politics. While credibility of the claim is debatable, there is no doubt that any solution to Balochistan has to be all inclusive. It is required that the establishment engage the rebels in dialogue.

With the more recent provincial autonomy wave, there may be the possibility of changing the political scope in Balochistan. The tribal leaders who have held positions of power previously have brought no development to the province and have furthered an ideological divide. If the establishment chooses to support those who have previously been termed rebels and brings them towards the political mainstream arena, not only would we have new players countering the influence of the feudal barons but also bring representatives supported by the people. Not only would that open the landscape for development in Balochistan, but would make possible energy, mining and exploratory projects detrimental to Pakistan’s existence.

One would have to wait to see whether the government would choose to take progressive reconciliatory steps that change the overall scenario, or go with the current strategies which will further the current divide. If this scenario does not change, the future of the region would not only seem uncertain, but also gloomy.

Muhammad Shayan Lakdawalla is a Multimedia Content Producer at Dawn.com