LONDON, Oct 25: The United States is likely to invade Iraq within the next six months with the backing of the United Nations, according to a poll of defence analysts.

In the global poll of 22 analysts, 13 said it was likely or very likely that US President George W. Bush would pursue a U.N.-backed attack on Iraq, seeking to end the rule of President Saddam Hussein.

But fewer expected an invasion without U.N. backing — partly because most analysts think the US administration will win some form of consent linked to demands to inspect Iraqi weapons.

“They would prefer what would amount to a surrender...110 percent (Iraqi) compliance on any new (U.N.) resolution,” said Barry Posen, Professor of Political Science at Massachusetts Institute of Technology.

“Preference two is war with the support of the U.N., then preference three is war without the support of the U.N. I think they will get their way one way or the other.”

Most of the analysts thought a conflict would start in January or February and would last up to three months, although US troops were likely to stay on in Iraq for at least a year after the main conflict.

They thought the United States would probably opt, at least initially, to send in a relatively small force backed with air power but the attack could well turn out to be heavier, pitting around 250,000 troops against Iraq’s 400,000-strong military.

Six analysts said an invasion with U.N. approval was very likely, seven thought it was likely and five said the chances were 50:50. Only three said it was unlikely and one very unlikely.

Asked about an attack without U.N. permission, six said it was very likely, two said likely, six put the chances at 50:50, seven said it was unlikely and one said very unlikely.

The poll was carried out October 11-23 and included defence and Middle East experts at academic institutions and think-tanks in the United States, Britain, France, Russia, Sweden, Switzerland, Egypt, Dubai, Indonesia, Australia and Japan.

Washington says Iraq is amassing weapons of mass destruction that threaten world security — a charge Baghdad denies.

The United Nations has been deadlocked over how to enforce Iraqi weapons inspections, first mandated after the 1991 Gulf War when US-led forces reversed an Iraqi invasion of Kuwait.

Bush said this week he believed Iraq could be disarmed peacefully, suggesting the United States might accept Saddam remaining in power if he met U.N. disarmament demands.

But defence experts said Bush is just varying his tone in the lead-up to an invasion, rather than changing his stance.

ECONOMIC IMPACT: If the United States does invade, most analysts expect a full-scale military conflict to be relatively brief — and that should help revive world economic growth, economists say.

Oil prices could drop sharply from the highs of around $30 a barrel that have been reached in recent months on fears that war in Iraq would disrupt supplies from the region.

A swiftly-resolved conflict and cheaper fuel would lift the sagging confidence of consumers in major economies, making them more willing to spend, boosting corporate profits.

However, 14 defence experts saw a significant or moderate risk that conflict could spread to other oil producing countries in the region through external attack or internal revolt.

Most analysts also saw a significant or very significant risk of an Iraqi conflict spurring terror attacks on the United States and its allies, although some said the link would be tenuous.

“An attack will fuel anti-Americanism in the Arab-Islamic world, but it will be hard to directly link terrorist incidents with hatred created by (the military) attack,” said Jeremy Binnie at Jane’s Information Group in London.

Ten of the analysts thought Saddam was likely or very likely to use weapons of mass destruction against the United States or its allies in a conflict.

Analysts were split on how much the United States would rely on internal Iraqi opposition in any military campaign. The main opponents of Saddam’s rule are either outside Iraq or in a Kurdish enclave in the north outside his control.

Five said the main action in any conflict would last up to a month and 13 between one and three months, albeit with some residual fighting likely for some time afterwards.

Three thought the main conflict would last up to six months and one predicted a war lasting more than six months.

Hassan Abou Taleb at the Al-Ahram Foundation in Cairo predicted a US invasion would meet widespread resistance among Iraq’s 22 million people, independent of Saddam Hussein.—Reuters