Now it looks obvious. President Asif Ali Zardari, co-chairman of Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP), and Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) chief Nawaz Sharif are busy writing the epitaph of the Chaudhrys-led PML-Q.
As the PML-N had already taken away 47 PML-Q MPAs in Punjab in the form of a unification block, the ruling PPP is set to accept some two dozen PML-Q legislators in the National Assembly into its fold.
Whether the PPP-PML-Q talks conclude in a coalition or not, according to PPP sources, some 25 PML-Q MNAs have given the ruling party assurance of their support. The PPP is using the ‘unconditional’ support of these MNAs as a bargaining chip to get most out of the coalition talks with the PML-Q leadership, which, according to some accounts, has been decided in principle, and its announcement would be made in a week’s time.
The unification block is supporting Punjab Chief Minister Shahbaz Sharif after formally ditching the PML-Q on whose platform they were elected in the last general elections. But the PML-Q MNAs, who have discreetly assured ‘individual’ support to the PPP government, would not have to go for such an extreme measure, as the Chaudhrys themselves are desperately looking for joining hands with President Zardari.
Regardless of the reservations witnessed within both parties over the formation of coalition, analysts believe the outcome will be more favourable for the PPP than the Chaudhrys. After developing differences with the Maulana Fazlur Rehman-led JUI-F, who had left the coalition, and the MQM, which still occupies the treasury benches but has quit the federal cabinet, in the coming days the PML-Q support will be crucial for the PPP.
On the other hand the PML-N, watching the manoeuvrings closely, is also claiming its share of the PML-Q legislators in the National Assembly and Senate. Talking with Dawn, Ahsan Iqabl, party’s spokesman, claimed that some 15 MNAs and senators of the PML-Q were in touch with the PML-N leadership. However, he said at the moment there wasn’t any pressing requirement to reveal their names.
When asked about the media reports speculating that the PPP-PML-Q coalition has the potential of hurting the PML-N’s electoral interests in Punjab, Mr Iqbal shrugged them off, saying the party had faced all these political forces under the patronage of former President General (retired) Pervez Musharraf during the last general elections. He said in the past, the PML-N had been tempted by various parties to dislodge the government, but the party’s leadership had decided against any ‘adventurism’.
A PML-Q lawmaker, who had formed a group of MNAs in touch with the PPP leadership, said soon after the departure of the former president in August 2009 “we have been in touch with the government. Nobody wants to go to next elections under the PML-Q due to its attachment with General Musharraf.” Similar is the case of PML-Q MNAs who are ideologically closer to the PML-N, and have been in contact with the Sharif brothers since then, the lawmaker, who requested not to be named, said.
After October 1999 bloodless military coup, General Musharraf carved out the PML-Q from within the PML-N, with Chaudhry Shujaat Hussain as its leader. Over the next ten years Chaudhry Shujaat and Chaudhry Pervez Elahi remained staunch supporters of General Musharraf. On more than one occasions, they publicly pledged to get the former president elected in uniform as many times as he wanted. The Chaudhrys enjoyed complete control over Punjab under Mr Elahi. And for a brief period, Mr Shujaat became prime minister.
Another PML-Q lawmaker talking to Dawn said present undercurrents in the party clearly suggested it was divided into four groups.
Chaudhry Shujaat and Chaudhry Pervez Elahi and their loyalists, the ones who want to join PPP and PML-N and a limited number of MNAs who are so strong in their constituencies that it doesn’t matter they join a party or contest election as independent candidates. For the lawmaker if the PPP-PML-Q coalition materialises, the party is ‘doomed’.
Privy to the ongoing discussion over the formation of coalition, the lawmaker said: “PPP has never offered us the Punjab governorship or the chief minister’s slot. We have also not made any such demand. The coalition between the two parties will only be in the centre.”
After the botched attempt of imposing Governor’s Rule in February 2009 in the hope of forming a coalition government with the PML-Q’s help in Punjab, the PPP has decided in principle not to touch the PML-N government in the province.
Though a trust deficit has always been there between the PPP and the PML-N leadership, over the last couple of years President Zardari and Prime Minister Yousaf Raza Gilani have assured the Sharif brothers of not disturbing the provincial government. And they have lived by this assurance. When the Punjab government sacked PPP ministers in March this year, the party accepted its new role as an opposition party.