The short-term memory has already classified the winter of 2010-2011 as both long and cold in the majority of the country which—following as it did on the heels of a few years of relatively mild winters—it may well have seemed to be. Yet, in reality, it was nothing of the sort, serving instead to further highlight the dangers of unfolding climate change.

Winter has traditionally always begun during mid-November and run through until at least the end of February in the plains and a month or so longer in upland areas of the country with the short spring. March and April follow by five months of summer, turning to autumn in September in the hills and at the beginning of October in the plains. This pattern, however, has undergone a drastic change over the last 10 to15 years and is having a knock-on affect on both the agricultural and horticultural sectors. Plus, it has also increased demands for electricity and gas which, as a direct result of this climate change, are in increasingly short supply.

The four seasons of the year now run something like this: the winter—January through February; the spring—March. The summer starts in April till the end of October and the autumn beginning in November to the end of December. This trend towards shorter winter, almost nonexistent spring, very long summer and late, compressed autumn also includes more extreme climate events—in the form of storms, flooding and extended periods of drought—than earlier weather patterns underwent what is, in climate terms, an extremely rapid alteration. This phenomenon, if it continues at this pace, will, within the next 10-15 years diminish winter and autumn even further, delete spring completely and leave the country subject to an almost permanent summer beset by periodic, intensive storms be they wet storms or dry ones.

This potentially devastating alteration of seasons is obviously not confined to Pakistan alone: it is a global phenomenon although the lengthening and shortening of specific seasons differs from continent to continent depending on latitude and longitude. But the overall effect on food production remains roughly the same.

What this means for food security in Pakistan is worrying indeed as longer, hotter summers when, according to scientific experts, monsoons may or may not arrive and if they do, are liable to be of high intensity over a shortened time span, will adversely impact agricultural and horticultural production across the board. Farmers are already facing problems in this respect as traditional sowing times of traditional crops grown in traditional areas often no longer apply.

Generally speaking, sowing can be performed earlier than has been the practice for preceding generations but, particularly in barani areas that are heavily dependent on rainfall patterns, this promptly leads to complications as rain fall patterns have not moved forward in line with sowing times. If a farmer sows his crops according to currently emerging weather patterns he may well lose everything when rain fails to materialise when it is most required, which is one of the reasons that farmers need expert guidance on how to cope with climate change as of now.

These rapid seasonal changes are also having an adverse effect on the natural world as nature, which is attuned to changes taking place over thousands, even millions of years, is largely unable to adapt fast enough to keep abreast with the current scenario.

Tree species such as apricots, plums and apples, widely cultivated in upland areas, are coming into blossom earlier each year and now often bloom before their locally indigenous pollinators are active. This can result in reduced pollination and therefore reduced crops, a situation further exacerbated by indiscriminate use of pesticides which wipe out useful insects along with the harmful ones.

All plant species, not just cultivated ones, are under abnormal levels of stress as seasons shrink/expand, average temperatures rise and rainfall/snow patterns spin out of the ‘norm’ and it will take time, perhaps a number of years, for the full effect of these changes to become known.

The danger is that whilst being aware that change is going on, concerned agricultural and horticultural departments do not move fast enough to avert future shortages of fresh food by educating growers as to how best to cope with potential problems and also by introducing new crop species able to tolerate anticipated climatic conditions.