NAIROBI: The people of Sudan face their best chance of peace in years but analysts say silencing the guns will take much more work by negotiators trying to end a long civil war.
The conflict between the government and rebels in Africa’s largest country has killed about two million people since it began in 1983. Fighting intensified this year and, with peace talks apparently deadlocked, optimism has been in short supply.
But on Saturday, delegates from the main rebel group — the Sudan People’s Liberation Army — shook hands with the government and announced they had resolved the two most intractable problems.
The SPLA and the government say they have agreed to a referendum on self-determination for south Sudan and that Shariah — currently the cornerstone of Sudan’s Islamic regime — will not be applied in the south, where many people practise animist or Christian religions.
A comprehensive solution, they said, was likely to follow by mid-September.
Four main issues remain to be discussed — power-sharing, well-sharing in the southern oil fields, human rights and a ceasefire. The SPLA has said it will not consider a ceasefire until all other problems are agreed on, using the threat as leverage to strengthen its negotiating position.
Analysts warned that details on even the two issues tackled are still sketchy and deals signed in the past have had a habit of being broken.
MORE TO BE DONE: “From what I have seen of it so far, it’s a better outcome to talks than at any previous time,” said Peter Woodward, a professor of politics at Britain’s Reading University.
“But we have got a lot more to be negotiated, and really it’s very much a question of keeping the pressure on to do it.”
The war in Sudan is often portrayed as a conflict between the Arab Muslim north and African Christian south, but the stereotype is outdated and analysts warn that any simplistic “north-south” attempt at a solution will flounder.
Southern Sudanese are clearly desperate for self-determination and the SPLA could not have signed any peace deal without securing a referendum on independence, due to be held after an interim period of six years.
Secession has always been anathema for the government. But analysts say that under the agreement Khartoum now hopes secession is an issue it will never have to deal with, calculating that six years of power sharing government will erode the strength of secessionist feeling in the south.
But there are many African peoples living outside the southern boundaries equally eager for fair representation and their needs will have to be taken into account if a real and comprehensive peace is to be achieved.
The second part of the accord, to separate religion and state in the south, also caters to SPLA ideals, but exactly what happens to non-Muslims in the north and Muslims in the south is unclear.
Analysts say the key issue will be reform of the central government, so that political power and wealth can be shared more evenly between Arabs and Africans — not just in the south, but in the west, the east and the central Nuba mountains.
DEFINITION REQUIRED: Even more basic is the need to define what exactly is “south Sudan”. A Sudanese diplomat in Nairobi said that the north-south divide had already been fixed, with both parties agreeing to observe the colonial boundary lines drawn up in 1956.
The SPLA, however, was less convinced.
“The definition of south Sudan has yet to be decided,” SPLA spokesman Samson Kwaje said. “It will be the subject of discussion in August.”
A diplomat said the situation was still delicate and a ceasefire might be some way off.—Reuters