LONDON: A flurry of hints and clues this week show that the British government still views a referendum next year on joining Europe’s single currency as a live possibility, but the only certainty in this euro saga is uncertainty.

Last week it was reported that Prime Minister Tony Blair had been won over by the idea of delaying until after the next election, because it would allow the opposition Conservative Party to rip itself apart over the issue one more time.

That may yet happen. But a catalogue of evidence this week firmly suggests it is not the government’s settled policy. “My advice is to look at what they say not read what is in newsprint,” one government source said of Blair and his powerful finance minister, Gordon Brown.

Blair, grilled by senior parliamentarians on Tuesday, said that he had certainly not ruled out a referendum in this parliament.

Nor, he said, was he at odds with Brown, long-rumoured to be more cautious about joining the currency club.

The pair have pledged to hold a referendum if they judge euro entry to be in Britain’s economic interest and to make that assessment by mid-2003 at the latest.

Opinion polls suggest most Britons want to keep the pound, but Blair seemed unconcerned.

“I think that people will listen a lot to the economic arguments,” he said. “People will listen seriously to the arguments about jobs and investment and trade.”

On Thursday, a little-noticed report from the Treasury on preparing Britain to deal with the euro, offered further clues.

The “Sixth Report on Euro Preparations” said that Britain’s public sector was continuing to lead efforts to prepare the country and businesses for possible entry into the euro.

One treasury source said it was purely a technical piece of work but it still begged the question — if the government has decided to delay its crunch decision, then why put the public sector through all that arduous and costly work?

“They would not have mentioned public sector preparations if they were not serious,” said Ciaran Barr, chief UK economist at Deutsche Bank. “The report is basically saying ‘look how easy it would be to join’.”

Brown took his turn at a private meeting with Labour MPs on Wednesday and stuck rigidly to the existing policy.

While the Chancellor of the Exchequer was uncontroversial, backbench Labour politicians seemed anxious for movement, demanding a debate before disappearing on a long summer break.

Millions of Britons holidaying in Europe this summer are about to get their hands on the euro for the first time, and may themselves have a more informed view by September.

One pro euro Labour figure said that the overwhelming majority of the party’s parliamentary members favoured giving up the pound.

Another, from the smaller anti-euro Labour caucus, said that the “pros” were subdued because they were facing mounting opposition from the public which will stay the government’s hand.

Either way, the fact the debate was demanded by rank-and-file politicians suggests some impatience with the wait-and-see stance that dates back to 1997, and may herald heated debate at the party’s annual conference in the Autumn.

CRUNCH TIME LOOMS: Time is beginning to press.

The euro preparations report stuck by the government’s assertion that it would take 24-30 months after a referendum “Yes” vote to prepare to switch currencies.

The next election must be held by 2006 but most governments prefer to go to the polls earlier rather than box themselves in.

Assuming Blair would not want an election later than the autumn of 2005, he must hold a referendum by September or October next year or shelve the project.

Government sources had talked of May 1, 2003, as a possible date — coinciding with the Scottish and Welsh parliament elections.

But watchdog, the Electoral Commission, appears to have scuppered that timetable, ruling last week that “referendums on fundamental issues should be considered in isolation.”

“The decision means that a referendum in Autumn 2003 is now more likely,” said Europe expert and former government adviser Graham Bishop. He expects a vote in October with Brown producing his euro assessment at or around the time of his March budget.

One pro-euro Labour MP said that if a vote was not held soon, the whole process would be shelved for seven years.

But while there is speculation aplenty, few apart from Blair and Brown can claim to know the latest thinking.

The truth is probably that the government’s top two have not yet made up their minds. But neither have they shelved the project.—Reuters