LAHORE, April 21: Gen Pervez Musharraf, it’s a foregone conclusion, will win through the April 30 referendum, public endorsement of his policies and then, according to his assertion, get a right to stay in power for another five years after the October elections when he will complete his first three years in the light of a Supreme Court mandate.
But the shape of things to come between April 30 and October and thereafter don’t give the hope for a smooth sailing. Political temperature is expected to rise by the day — and nobody can safely predict what it will culminate in.
The general has already antagonised all major political parties, including those in the Alliance for Restoration of Democracy, the all-party conference and the Muttahida Majlis-i-Aml. Some other parties outside the fold of these conglomerates are also opposed to the general and his policies.
The PML(QA), the Pakistan Awami Tehrik, the Millat Party, the Tehrik-i-Insaaf and the Qaumi Jamhoori Party are on the side of the government, but barring the PML(QA) the remaining parties are, in political terms, non-entities, just like some constituents of the ARD or the APC.
But, as things stand, parties fighting the government have stronger roots in the masses than those supporting it— more for their expediencies than principles.
The victory of Gen Musharraf in the referendum will mean that parties opposed to him will stand no chance in the general elections, irrespective of their standing among the electorate. And only such parties will be able to get seats in parliament as are willing to accept a role subservient to the all-powerful president-cum-army chief.
This, in other words, means the PPP, the PML(N) and parties in the MMA are destined to sit on opposition benches. Pro-government parties will be given full support in the elections and the two will work like allies.
Some political leaders say that in his recent meetings with political leaders, Gen Musharraf had told in plain terms that he would prefer a parliament able to work with him. And when a leader argued that the government’s support for the PML(QA) had forced other parties to join hands with the opposition, the generalhad said the composition of the future parliament would not be in line with his thinking in case he did not pursue a pro-PML(QA) policy.
Parties opposed to Gen Musharraf will now do their best to bring him under pressure to have the October elections held on their terms, though there is little possibility of their succeeding in their mission. The general, in return, will also try to outmanoeuvre them, employing all resources at his command — and this means the coming weeks and months will be of growing uncertainty and unrest.
In the government-opposition bout the role of the elected nazims and councillors will be pivotal. Barring a negligible minority, all these people are affiliated with one party or another. In case parties like the PPP, the PML(N) and the Jamaat-i-Islami give a call to their adherents to step down — and they obey — the system of local government may face a serious crisis. In fact, the very survival of the system may be in danger as replacement of almost 50 per cent of the quarter of a million councillors and nazims will not be an easy task for the rulers.
The government, cognizant of the possible opposition moves, has already warned the nazims against maintaining their political affiliations. They have been told by the relevant quarters that they will be violating their oath by remaining in touch with their parties.
To test the possible reaction of political parties, the government has already started treating the Multan nazim, a PPP office-bearer, a pariah.
To keep the nazims with it, the government has also promised funds to those supporting referendum. Those opposing it will have to starve.
Thus, time has come for the nazims and councillors to decide whether they will remain on the side of their respective parties or change loyalties to get funds. The elected representatives, it is said, are already weighing options.
On the other hand, the PPP has been sending mixed signals to the government which ostensibly are in conflict with the policy of the ARD, of which it is one of the major components.
Ms Benazir Bhutto, for example, said that in case Gen Musharraf loses referendum, other state institutions should ask him to step down and power should be handed over to the judiciary. The statement, perhaps, implies that the general may be acceptable in case he wins the one-man race. The party’s directive to the nazims that they can receive the chief executive and governors but not participate in the referendum-related rallies is simply ludicrous and it means that the president and the governors are welcome as long as they don’t address rallies in connection with the referendum.
Much before these signals, the PPP chairperson had said, though contradicted the same subsequently, that Gen Musharraf should talk to her party in case he wants to remain the president.
All signals sent by the PPP have not been received by the general and he continues to insist that Ms Bhutto as well as Mian Nawaz Sharif will not be allowed to return to power. The general is determined to lead the country the ways he likes and some say that he may ultimately decide to hold partyless elections to keep the system under a firm grip.