PESHAWAR, Nov 11: After suffering dramatic reversals in northern Afghanistan, Taliban’s fortunes may start slipping in the southern Pakhtoon heartland with the defection of a key commander, who commands considerable strength and force, Dawn has learnt.
Amid growing anxiety among Pakthoon commanders over Northern Alliance’s dramatic successes in the north of Afghanistan, moves are afoot to set things rolling in southern and eastern Afghanistan to counter-balance the anti-Taliban opposition that consists mainly of ethnic minorities.
Already, former Mujahideen commanders are warning of a war if the Northern Alliance, bolstered by its triumphant march in northern Afghanistan, enters and takes over Kabul. “We never like them to move into Kabul. There right now is a great problem. The US is supporting only the Northern Alliance. If it takes over Kabul, Pakhtoons will not like it. There will be a war again”, former Mujahideen commander Haji Zaman said.
Afghan analysts say that the Northern Alliance’s successes in northern Afghanistan may also have rung alarm bells in Islamabad, which has been pushing for a Pakhtoon-dominated broad-based government, headed by the former king, Zahir Shah, who is in exile in Rome since 1973.
The analysts say that the Northern Alliance’s northward push could put the opposition led by ousted President Burhanuddin Rabbani in a much stronger bargaining position with the former king. What, however, worries the analysts is that the Pakhtoons have not been able to put their acts together. “There are not even negotiations to put their acts together. The southern Pakhtoons are not gulvanizing. They are doing nothing to unite and grab Kabul.”
There are also warnings that with the opposition reclaiming territories in northern Afghanistan, the Northern Alliance may not heed the US call not to enter the Afghan capital.
Haji Mangal Hussain, who previously was associated with the Hizb-i-Islami (Hikmatyar), but had to leave Pakistan only to return again recently following a fallout with his party leader, has warned that Afghanistan may disintegrate along ethnic lines if no political alternative comes about. The present situation, he says, is leading to a north-south divide.
Informed sources said that it was in the backdrop of those developments that an important commander was considering abandoning the Taliban. The commander, they added, had several commanders allied to him and had at his commands a force of several thousands.
They said the situation might start rolling against the Taliban some times next week or latest by the early days of Ramazan. “Things take time”, they added.
According to the sources, the commander’s expected switch will bring sweeping changes on the ground in southern and eastern Afghanistan, where some important Taliban leaders and commanders are said to be “well-disposed to the idea.” This, they hoped, would open up the way to Kabul.
The sources insisted that the Abdul Haq and Hamid Karzai’s botch-up had had negative fallout on anti-Taliban manoeuvres and that was the reason for the apparent reluctance on part of some Taliban commanders and leaders to come out openly and ditch their side.
The United States, which wanted to go alone as far as organizing defections and uprising in Afghanistan was concerned, had put its weight behind Pakistan to carry out the task, they said and added that “Pakistan is now fully on board.”
Afghan sources said Pakistani officials were in close contact and had had meetings with prospective Taliban defectors. “There are a good number of such people. They will overcome their reluctance once things start moving for them”, they observed.
Pakhtoon commanders warn that lack of support from the US to Pakhtoons in Afghanistan was causing frustration and anger that may eventually solidify the Taliban position in Pakhtoon areas.
Even politically, according to Afghan analysts, Pakistan is backing a Peshawar-based moderate former mujahideen leader, who in all seriousness, believes himself to be an alternative to the former king, while the so-called Rome process appears to be going nowhere.
Haji Mangal Hussain says that a Pakhtoon alternative to the Taliban may emerge if the Northern Alliance enters and takes over the Afghan capital. “If Northern Alliance comes into Kabul, I am sure they will start fighting again (among themselves). “Then a Pakhtoon substitute for the Taliban will come.”