Split in key states forecast

Published October 29, 2004

WASHINGTON, Oct 28: New polls suggested on Thursday that President George W. Bush and Senator John Kerry could be headed toward a split of key swing states, further clouding next week's unpredictable White House election.

The surveys showed Bush leading in the southeastern state of Florida, which was pivotal in 2000. Kerry appeared to be making a move in the midwestern state of Ohio while clinging to a small edge in the eastern state of Pennsylvania.

The three states were the mostly closely watched of 10 so-called battlegrounds that could decide a contest shaping up as a nail-biter to rival the roller-coaster showdown of four years ago.

Tracking polls Thursday put the candidates in a virtual tie. The Washington Post gave Kerry a statistically insignificant 49-48 percent lead, Zogby International had Bush on top 48-47 percent and Rasmussen put the president's edge at 49-47 percent.

The race was just as tight on the state level, where the two sides jockeyed for a majority of the 538 electoral votes that actually decide the presidency and are awarded in separate, mostly winner-take-all, contests.

Several polls put Bush ahead in Florida (27 electors), which handed him the presidency four years ago after a nasty recount fight that went to the US Supreme Court. A Los Angeles Times survey put the current margin at eight points.

But Quinnipiac University pollsters in Connecticut said the Democrats appeared to be doing more to moblize their Florida base. Among the 16 percent of state residents who have voted early, Kerry led Bush 56-39 percent.

Kerry was also moving up in Ohio (20 electors), historically a "must-win" for Republican presidential hopefuls. The Los Angeles Times gave him a 50-44 percent lead while Zogby had him narrowing a five-point Bush edge to a single point.

The challenger clung to a lead in most polls in the eastern state of Pennsylvania (21 electors), which barely voted for Democrat Al Gore in 2000. But the Los Anglees Times had the state a dead heat at 48 percent.

A handful of other states could also determine the outcome of the long, costly and acrimonius race.-AFP