HARARE: Zimbabwe President Robert Mugabe has bowed to opposition and regional pressure to adopt sweeping electoral reforms ahead of parliamentary polls next year, but analysts say he has done so because he is confident of victory.
"I think the reason that Mugabe is adopting these reforms is that he realizes that he can do so without losing any ground," said a senior Western diplomat based in Harare.
"In effect, he actually gains, appears like a reasonable man in the international community, especially among his colleagues in SADC (Southern African Development Community), and then he does so without losing anything," he added.
Mugabe opened a new session of parliament on Tuesday saying Zimbabwe would implement wide-ranging electoral reforms before parliamentary polls next March, giving in to some key demands from the opposition Movement for Democratic Change (MDC).
The reforms, which must be approved by parliament, would include setting up an independent election commission, a single day of voting instead of two, and the counting of votes at polling centres.
It was Mugabe's first public comment on electoral changes promised by his ruling ZANU-PF party last month and largely welcomed by the MDC as paving the way for free and fair polls.
Analysts say he conceded to electoral reforms to retain key regional support. While others saw it as a deft move by the veteran leader to ease pressure on his embattled government while, in practice, further entrenching his party's rule.
"Mugabe has this ability to pick the right moment to move, and in this case he is again doing so without threatening his position," said Professor Heneri Dzinotyiwei of the University of Zimbabwe.
Mugabe is under international pressure over his disputed re-election win in 2002 and ZANU-PF's equally controversial victory in parliamentary polls four years ago.
He has strengthened his grip on power through tough security and media laws that have largely stifled opposition, and a political patronage system that rewards loyalty, critics say.
PRESSURE BUILDS: But Mugabe has been under increasing diplomatic and financial pressure for change, including from other African leaders.
Mugabe suffered some embarrassment at the African Union summit in Addis Ababa earlier this month when a report was unofficially circulated condemning his human rights record.
Dzinotyiwei said pressure from Mugabe's colleagues in the 14-nation SADC, especially from South African President Thabo Mbeki who has helped shield him from foreign pressure, had also partly forced him to adopt the electoral reforms.
Mugabe hinted as much on Tuesday, telling parliament that his proposed reforms were partly driven by "ongoing regional consultations" on developing uniform electoral rules in SADC.
The International Monetary Fund has also stepped in this month by establishing a six-month grace period before considering Zimbabwe's expulsion from the fund due to arrears amounting to $295 million, or about 56 per cent of its quota, as of June 2004.
Zimbabwe has been without IMF aid since 1999, and several Western donors suspended help following Mugabe's re-election in 2002 - which the MDC has challenged as rigged.
Mugabe has been in the hot seat before and has not made the relatively bold gesture he unveiled on Tuesday. Analysts say the reason he did now is he feels secure in his party's strength.
"He has the media, he has (independence) war veterans and youth brigades and there are security and media laws...and he has the political machinery to ensure that ZANU-PF's dominance continues," said Lovemore Madhuku, chairman of political pressure group National Constitutional Assembly (NCA).
"We should not be too pessimistic because this is a process and if we really get an independent election commission we will be making a good," said Reginald Matchaba-Hove, chairman of the civic coalition group Zimbabwe Election Support Network.-Reuters